David's NFL Week 6 Sunday Morning and Afternoon Betting Picks & Predictions (with Units)
The GridironAI Betting Model has locked in its top value plays for Week 6 of the NFL season. Using advanced analytics, player performance trends, and line-movement data, these are David's best bets for this week.
David does the research and uses our models so you don't have to. SNF picks will come out in the late afternoon on Sunday.
Week 6 Picks
| Pick | Opponent | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos -7 | vs New York Jets | 1.5U |
| Dallas Cowboys -3 | vs Carolina Panthers | 4U |
| Miami Dolphins +4 | vs LA Chargers | 2U |
| Tennesse Titans +4.5 | vs Las Vegas Raiders | 3U |
| Tennesse Titans Moneyline +180 | vs Las Vegas Raiders | 1U |
| Green Bay Packers -14 | vs Cincinnati Bengals | 2U |
| San Francisco 49ers +3.5 | vs Tampa Bay Bucs | 2U |
| Pick | Line | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Jets / Broncos Under 43.5 | Game Total | 2U |
| Ravens / Rams Over 44 | Game Total | 2U |
| Panthers / Cowboys Under 48.5 | Game Total | 2U |
| Colts / Cardinals Under 46.5 | Game Total | 2U |
| Jaguars / Seahawks Over 47.5 | Game Total | 2U |
| Dolphins / Chargers Under 44 | Game Total | 2U |
| Saints / Patriots Under 46.5 | Game Total | 2U |
| Raiders / Titans Under 41.5 | Game Total | 2U |
| Bengals / Packers Under 44.5 | Game Total | 2U |
| Bucs / 49ers Over 47.5 | Game Total | 2U |
Cowboys vs. Panthers Analysis
Both of these teams have been on a rollercoaster this season, some games where they look great, others where they look pathetic. The Cowboys offense has been solid, even with the absence of CeeDee Lamb, while the defense has struggled. Both teams are prone to turnovers, and this game may come down to who can hold on to the ball. I think this a great spot to fade the Panthers after last week's come from behind win. Rico Dowdle had a career game with 206 yards, and is averaging 5.7 yard per carry this season. This type of performance is not sustainable, and should regress to towards career average of 4.6 yards. And while Bryce Young has instances where he makes plays, he is still one of the worst quarterbacks in the league. He's too small, has a weak arm, and makes bad decisions which leads to sacks and turnovers. The Cowboys gained confidence by beating up a weak Jets team last week, and now they get to build on that by beating up another weak team this week. Our spread model projects the Cowboys with a 71% chance to cover the spread. Our spread model picks are 9-2 so far this season when we have a model probability of 70% or higher. Our team scoring model projects a game score of 25-21 Cowboys, within the confidence range to cover the Cowboys -3, and also suggests there is value on the Under 48.5 line.
Titans vs. Raiders Analysis
The pillowfight of the week. The Titans should/would be 0-5 if the Cardinals hadn't gifted them a win last week. Nonetheless, the win helps build confidence for the Titans, and especially for rookie QB, Cam Ward. Both of these offense have been struggling. The Raiders will be without starting tight end Brock Bowers, which is a huge loss. Geno Smith has a league high 9 interceptions through 5 games and has been sacked 16 times. Ward has been sacked 19 times. Our spread model has a probability of 61% that the Titans can cover with +4.5. We also feel there is value to sprinkle a little on the Titans moneyline. Our team scoring model projects a low scoring game, 20-16 Raiders, which is which supports our position of Titans +4.5, and also suggests line value on the Under 41.5.
GridironAI Edge
Our AI model simulates each matchup 10,000+ times to uncover hidden value versus market odds.
Follow our weekly projections and unit-based bankroll strategy for steady, data-driven profit through the season.
All odds current as of publication. Make sure you shop around at different sports books to get the best odds and line to maximize your return. Always wager responsibly.