NFL Week 6 Pick'Em

By Andy Troiano · October 09, 2019

About our Model

The current model is predicting the following information:

  • Probability of Team Winning

Updates

We spent all last week refactoring the model and code used in our MoneyLine/Pick’Em projections. The new output will have three outputs: 1, The projected winner 2. The probability of the home team winning (you can subtract one from that value to get the likelihood of the away team winning), 3. The risk.

  • Right now, the risk is defined as any probability that is between 50% and 51%.

Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

  • The model does not know about significant roster changes that occure before the current game.
  • Backtested results (below) are the season to date numbers

Backtested Performance Results

The current backtest results are for the first two weeks of the season. This will also give you an idea of the performance if we were using this model all year.

  • Below is the percent correct for the year
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Correct </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> 0.71 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Below is a table that outlines how the model does with the individual predictions. This is useful if you want to use our predictions as a guide. Note- The current sample is small so any broad conclusions you make need to be discounted. <table> <thead> <tr> <th> predict </th> <th> Total Correct </th> <th> Total Pred </th> <th> Correct % </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> away\_team\_wins </td> <td> 22 </td> <td> 23 </td> <td> 0.96 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> home\_team\_wins </td> <td> 33 </td> <td> 54 </td> <td> 0.61 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Projections

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Home Team </th> <th> Away Team Name </th> <th> Home Team Prob </th> <th> Pickem </th> <th> Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> New England Patriots </td> <td> New York Giants </td> <td> 0.88 </td> <td> New England Patriots </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td> Carolina Panthers </td> <td> 0.35 </td> <td> Carolina Panthers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td> 0.32 </td> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> <td> 0.28 </td> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> Houston Texans </td> <td> 0.72 </td> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Miami Dolphins </td> <td> Washington Redskins </td> <td> 0.52 </td> <td> Miami Dolphins </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td> 0.37 </td> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td> 0.85 </td> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td> 0.45 </td> <td> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td> 0.71 </td> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Denver Broncos </td> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> <td> 0.27 </td> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> New York Jets </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td> 0.38 </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td> 0.81 </td> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> <td> Detroit Lions </td> <td> 0.68 </td> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Projected Game Scores

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Home Team Score </th> <th> Away Team Score </th> <th> Home Team </th> <th> Away Team </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> 29 </td> <td> 21 </td> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 30 </td> <td> 19 </td> <td> New England Patriots </td> <td> New York Giants </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 19 </td> <td> 29 </td> <td> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 25 </td> <td> 25 </td> <td> New York Jets </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 28 </td> <td> 24 </td> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> Houston Texans </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 23 </td> <td> 23 </td> <td> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td> Carolina Panthers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 27 </td> <td> 23 </td> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> <td> Detroit Lions </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 25 </td> <td> 22 </td> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 31 </td> <td> 19 </td> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td> Cincinnati Bengals </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 26 </td> <td> 23 </td> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 23 </td> <td> 25 </td> <td> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 26 </td> <td> 21 </td> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 28 </td> <td> 19 </td> <td> Denver Broncos </td> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 17 </td> <td> 25 </td> <td> Miami Dolphins </td> <td> Washington Redskins </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Questions/Feedback

If anyone has any questions or wants to talk to us, you can find us on our Slack Channel. Click here to join: PLEASE CLICK ME, WE LOVE TO TALK.