NFL Week 5 Pick'Em

By Andy Troiano · October 03, 2019

About our Model

The current model is predicting the following information:

  • Probability of Team Winning

Updates Since Last Week

We spent all last week refactoring the model and code used in our MoneyLine/Pick’Em projections. The new output will have three outputs: 1, The projected winner 2. The probability of the home team winning (you can subtract one from that value to get the likelihood of the away team winning), 3. The risk.

  • Right now, the risk is defined as any probability that is between 50% and 51%.

Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

  • The model does not know about significant roster changes that occur before the current game.
  • Backtested results (below) are the season to date numbers

Backtested Performance Results

The current backtest results are for the first two weeks of the season. This will also give you an idea of the performance if we were using this model all year.

  • Below is the percent correct for the year
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Correct </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> 0.74 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Below is a table that outlines how the model does with the individual predictions. This is useful if you want to use our predictions as a guide. Note- The current sample is small so any broad conclusions you make need to be discounted. <table> <thead> <tr> <th> predict </th> <th> Total Correct </th> <th> Total Pred </th> <th> Correct % </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> away team wins </td> <td> 20 </td> <td> 21 </td> <td> 0.95 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> home_team_wins </td> <td> 26 </td> <td> 41 </td> <td> 0.63 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Projections

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Home Team </th> <th> Away Team Name </th> <th> Home Team Prob </th> <th> Pickem </th> <th> Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td> 0.53 </td> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Carolina Panthers </td> <td> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td> 0.67 </td> <td> Carolina Panthers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td> 0.69 </td> <td> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Houston Texans </td> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td> 0.61 </td> <td> Houston Texans </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> <td> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td> 0.64 </td> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> New York Giants </td> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td> 0.33 </td> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> <td> 0.77 </td> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td> New York Jets </td> <td> 0.76 </td> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td> 0.35 </td> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> <td> Chicago Bears </td> <td> 0.50 </td> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Washington Redskins </td> <td> New England Patriots </td> <td> 0.15 </td> <td> New England Patriots </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td> Denver Broncos </td> <td> 0.90 </td> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> <td> 0.60 </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td> 0.81 </td> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> <td> 0.65 </td> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Questions/Feedback

If anyone has any questions or wants to talk to us, you can find us on our Slack Channel. Click here to join: PLEASE CLICK ME, WE LOVE TO TALK.