NFL Week 4 Pick'Em

By Andy Troiano · September 25, 2019

About our Model

The current model is predicting the following information:

  • Probability of Team Winning

Updates Since Last Week

We spent all last week refactoring the model and code used in our MoneyLine/Pick’Em projections. The new output will have 3 outputs: 1, The projected winner 2. The probability of the home team winning (you can subtract 1 from that value to get the probability of the away team winning), 3. The risk.

  • Right now, the risk is defined as any probability that is between 50% and 51%.

Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

  • The model does not know about major roster changes that occurred before the current game.
  • Backtested results (below) are the season to date numbers

Backtested Performance Results

The current backtest results are for the first two weeks of the season. This will also give you an idea of the performance if we were using this model all year.

  • Below is the percent correct for the year
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Correct </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> 0.66 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Below is a table that outlines how the model does with the individual predictions. This is useful if you want to use our predictions as a guide. Note- The current sample is small so any broad conclusions you make need to be discounted. <table> <thead> <tr> <th> predict </th> <th> Total Correct </th> <th> Total Pred </th> <th> Correct % </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Away Team Wins</td> <td> 10 </td> <td> 14 </td> <td> 0.71 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Home Team Wins </td> <td> 21 </td> <td> 33 </td> <td> 0.64 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Projections

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Home Team </th> <th> Away Team Name </th> <th> Home Team Prob </th> <th> Pickem </th> <th> Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td> 0.62 </td> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> <td> 0.60 </td> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> <td> New England Patriots </td> <td> 0.28 </td> <td> New England Patriots </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> <td> 0.68 </td> <td> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Detroit Lions </td> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> 0.26 </td> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Houston Texans </td> <td> Carolina Panthers </td> <td> 0.62 </td> <td> Houston Texans </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Miami Dolphins </td> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td> 0.21 </td> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> New York Giants </td> <td> Washington Redskins </td> <td> 0.61 </td> <td> New York Giants </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> <td> 0.71 </td> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td> 0.25 </td> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td> 0.77 </td> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Chicago Bears </td> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td> 0.51 </td> <td> Chicago Bears </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Denver Broncos </td> <td> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td> 0.60 </td> <td> Denver Broncos </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td> 0.41 </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td> 0.65 </td> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Questions/Feedback

If anyone has any questions or wants to talk to us, you can find us on in our Slack Channel. Click here to join: PLEASE CLICK ME, WE LOVE TO TALK.