NFL Week 3 Pick'Em and Projected Points

By Andy Troiano · September 20, 2019

About our Model

The current model is predicting the following information:

  • Home Team Score
  • Away Team Score
  • Vegas Line
    • In general, this should track pretty closely to what Vegas set for the game.

Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

  • The model does not know about significant roster changes
  • Model is undergoing significant changes to improve accuracy.
  • Backtested results (below) are done by simulating the week to week predictions

Backtested Performance Results

Until I have time (and fully backtested results) to write a performance summary, below is the current backtested results, by season for the predictions.

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Season </th> <th> Predicted Correct Game Score </th> <th> Percent Correct Game Score </th> <th> Games Predicted </th> <th> Predicted Correct Prob Game </th> <th> Percent Correct Prob Game </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> 2009 </td> <td> 96 </td> <td> 0.62 </td> <td> 156 </td> <td> 88 </td> <td> 0.56 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 2010 </td> <td> 134 </td> <td> 0.55 </td> <td> 245 </td> <td> 133 </td> <td> 0.54 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 2011 </td> <td> 156 </td> <td> 0.65 </td> <td> 240 </td> <td> 161 </td> <td> 0.67 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 2012 </td> <td> 134 </td> <td> 0.54 </td> <td> 247 </td> <td> 132 </td> <td> 0.53 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 2013 </td> <td> 124 </td> <td> 0.51 </td> <td> 243 </td> <td> 127 </td> <td> 0.52 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 2014 </td> <td> 143 </td> <td> 0.57 </td> <td> 249 </td> <td> 154 </td> <td> 0.62 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 2015 </td> <td> 129 </td> <td> 0.52 </td> <td> 247 </td> <td> 139 </td> <td> 0.56 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 2016 </td> <td> 146 </td> <td> 0.60 </td> <td> 244 </td> <td> 152 </td> <td> 0.62 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 2017 </td> <td> 131 </td> <td> 0.54 </td> <td> 242 </td> <td> 129 </td> <td> 0.53 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 2018 </td> <td> 137 </td> <td> 0.56 </td> <td> 243 </td> <td> 138 </td> <td> 0.57 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

YTD Results

Below are YTD Results for our Pick’Ems:

  • Total Correct = 22/32
  • Last Week - 10/16

Game Projections

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Home Team </th> <th> Away Team </th> <th> Home Team Score </th> <th> Away Team Score </th> <th> Vegas Line Predicted </th> <th> Prob HT Winning </th> <th> Pickem </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> <td> 14 </td> <td> 25 </td> <td> 4.09 </td> <td> 0.16 </td> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> <td> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td> 23 </td> <td> 20 </td> <td> -7.15 </td> <td> 0.63 </td> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td> 23 </td> <td> 25 </td> <td> -1.21 </td> <td> 0.32 </td> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td> Miami Dolphins </td> <td> 27 </td> <td> 17 </td> <td> -19.30 </td> <td> 0.90 </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> <td> Denver Broncos </td> <td> 27 </td> <td> 20 </td> <td> -5.60 </td> <td> 0.84 </td> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td> 29 </td> <td> 29 </td> <td> -0.39 </td> <td> 0.30 </td> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> <td> 31 </td> <td> 12 </td> <td> -9.78 </td> <td> 0.98 </td> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> </tr> <tr> <td> New England Patriots </td> <td> New York Jets </td> <td> 34 </td> <td> 13 </td> <td> -17.29 </td> <td> 0.99 </td> <td> New England Patriots </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td> Detroit Lions </td> <td> 28 </td> <td> 22 </td> <td> -2.91 </td> <td> 0.55 </td> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td> Carolina Panthers </td> <td> 19 </td> <td> 25 </td> <td> 1.91 </td> <td> 0.30 </td> <td> Carolina Panthers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td> New York Giants </td> <td> 18 </td> <td> 27 </td> <td> 0.87 </td> <td> 0.11 </td> <td> New York Giants </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td> Houston Texans </td> <td> 24 </td> <td> 22 </td> <td> -2.62 </td> <td> 0.66 </td> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> <td> 27 </td> <td> 21 </td> <td> -4.75 </td> <td> 0.70 </td> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> </tr> <tr> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td> 24 </td> <td> 23 </td> <td> -3.36 </td> <td> 0.43 </td> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td> 19 </td> <td> 27 </td> <td> 1.99 </td> <td> 0.15 </td> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Washington Redskins </td> <td> Chicago Bears </td> <td> 15 </td> <td> 27 </td> <td> 4.56 </td> <td> 0.10 </td> <td> Chicago Bears </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Questions/Feedback

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