### About our Model
The current model is predicting the following information:
- Home Team Score
- Away Team Score
- Vegas Line
- In general, this should track pretty closely to what Vegas set for the game.
#### Current Limitations
Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:
- The model does not know about significant roster changes
- Model is undergoing significant changes to improve accuracy.
- Backtested results (below) are done by simulating the week to week
predictions
#### Backtested Performance Results
Until I have time (and fully backtested results) to write a performance
summary, below is the current backtested results, by season for the predictions.
Season
Predicted Correct Game Score
Percent Correct Game Score
Games Predicted
Predicted Correct Prob Game
Percent Correct Prob Game
2009
96
0.62
156
88
0.56
2010
134
0.55
245
133
0.54
2011
156
0.65
240
161
0.67
2012
134
0.54
247
132
0.53
2013
124
0.51
243
127
0.52
2014
143
0.57
249
154
0.62
2015
129
0.52
247
139
0.56
2016
146
0.60
244
152
0.62
2017
131
0.54
242
129
0.53
2018
137
0.56
243
138
0.57
#### YTD Results
Below are YTD Results for our Pick’Ems:
- Total Correct = 22/32
- Last Week - 10/16
### Game Projections
Home Team
Away Team
Home Team Score
Away Team Score
Vegas Line Predicted
Prob HT Winning
Pickem
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans
14
25
4.09
0.16
Tennessee Titans
Buffalo Bills
Cincinnati Bengals
23
20
-7.15
0.63
Buffalo Bills
Indianapolis Colts
Atlanta Falcons
23
25
-1.21
0.32
Atlanta Falcons
Dallas Cowboys
Miami Dolphins
27
17
-19.30
0.90
Dallas Cowboys
Green Bay Packers
Denver Broncos
27
20
-5.60
0.84
Green Bay Packers
Kansas City Chiefs
Baltimore Ravens
29
29
-0.39
0.30
Baltimore Ravens
Minnesota Vikings
Oakland Raiders
31
12
-9.78
0.98
Minnesota Vikings
New England Patriots
New York Jets
34
13
-17.29
0.99
New England Patriots
Philadelphia Eagles
Detroit Lions
28
22
-2.91
0.55
Philadelphia Eagles
Arizona Cardinals
Carolina Panthers
19
25
1.91
0.30
Carolina Panthers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New York Giants
18
27
0.87
0.11
New York Giants
Los Angeles Chargers
Houston Texans
24
22
-2.62
0.66
Los Angeles Chargers
Seattle Seahawks
New Orleans Saints
27
21
-4.75
0.70
Seattle Seahawks
San Francisco 49ers
Pittsburgh Steelers
24
23
-3.36
0.43
Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns
Los Angeles Rams
19
27
1.99
0.15
Los Angeles Rams
Washington Redskins
Chicago Bears
15
27
4.56
0.10
Chicago Bears
Questions/Feedback
------------------
If anyone has any questions or wants to talk to us, you can find us on
in our Slack Channel. Click here to join: [PLEASE CLICK ME, WE LOVE TO
TALK](https://join.slack.com/t/gridironai/shared_invite/enQtNDI2MDg0ODg5Nzc3LWNhMmVmZmZhNTVkMjQ2OWZiNTcxZDM3MjY2Y2JmYzUzMTI1MDY1NjcyN2Y3NTEwNzZhNWRhNDRiMTJmYWRiYjU).