NFL Week 3 Pick'Em and Projected Points

By Andy Troiano · September 20, 2019

### About our Model The current model is predicting the following information: - Home Team Score - Away Team Score - Vegas Line - In general, this should track pretty closely to what Vegas set for the game. #### Current Limitations Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model: - The model does not know about significant roster changes - Model is undergoing significant changes to improve accuracy. - Backtested results (below) are done by simulating the week to week predictions #### Backtested Performance Results Until I have time (and fully backtested results) to write a performance summary, below is the current backtested results, by season for the predictions.
Season Predicted Correct Game Score Percent Correct Game Score Games Predicted Predicted Correct Prob Game Percent Correct Prob Game
2009 96 0.62 156 88 0.56
2010 134 0.55 245 133 0.54
2011 156 0.65 240 161 0.67
2012 134 0.54 247 132 0.53
2013 124 0.51 243 127 0.52
2014 143 0.57 249 154 0.62
2015 129 0.52 247 139 0.56
2016 146 0.60 244 152 0.62
2017 131 0.54 242 129 0.53
2018 137 0.56 243 138 0.57
#### YTD Results Below are YTD Results for our Pick’Ems: - Total Correct = 22/32 - Last Week - 10/16 ### Game Projections
Home Team Away Team Home Team Score Away Team Score Vegas Line Predicted Prob HT Winning Pickem
Jacksonville Jaguars Tennessee Titans 14 25 4.09 0.16 Tennessee Titans
Buffalo Bills Cincinnati Bengals 23 20 -7.15 0.63 Buffalo Bills
Indianapolis Colts Atlanta Falcons 23 25 -1.21 0.32 Atlanta Falcons
Dallas Cowboys Miami Dolphins 27 17 -19.30 0.90 Dallas Cowboys
Green Bay Packers Denver Broncos 27 20 -5.60 0.84 Green Bay Packers
Kansas City Chiefs Baltimore Ravens 29 29 -0.39 0.30 Baltimore Ravens
Minnesota Vikings Oakland Raiders 31 12 -9.78 0.98 Minnesota Vikings
New England Patriots New York Jets 34 13 -17.29 0.99 New England Patriots
Philadelphia Eagles Detroit Lions 28 22 -2.91 0.55 Philadelphia Eagles
Arizona Cardinals Carolina Panthers 19 25 1.91 0.30 Carolina Panthers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers New York Giants 18 27 0.87 0.11 New York Giants
Los Angeles Chargers Houston Texans 24 22 -2.62 0.66 Los Angeles Chargers
Seattle Seahawks New Orleans Saints 27 21 -4.75 0.70 Seattle Seahawks
San Francisco 49ers Pittsburgh Steelers 24 23 -3.36 0.43 Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns Los Angeles Rams 19 27 1.99 0.15 Los Angeles Rams
Washington Redskins Chicago Bears 15 27 4.56 0.10 Chicago Bears
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