NFL Week 2 Pick'Em and Projected Points

By Andy Troiano · September 11, 2019

About our Model

The current model is predicting the following information:

  • Home Team Score
  • Away Team Score
  • Vegas Line
    • In general, this should track pretty closely to what Vegas is setting for a game.

Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

  • Model does not know about major roster changes
  • Example - It doesn’t know Luck isn’t the starting QB for Indy anymore
  • Backtested results (below) are done by simulating the week to week predictions but this hasn’t been

Backtested Performance Results

Until I have time (and fully backtested results) to write a performance summary, below is the current backtested results, by season for the pickem predictions.

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Season </th> <th> Predicted Correct Game Score </th> <th> Percent Correct Game Score </th> <th> Games Predicted </th> <th> Predicted Correct Prob Game </th> <th> Percent Correct Prob Game </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> 2009 </td> <td> 103 </td> <td> 0.62 </td> <td> 166 </td> <td> 124 </td> <td> 0.75 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 2010 </td> <td> 139 </td> <td> 0.55 </td> <td> 254 </td> <td> 193 </td> <td> 0.76 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 2011 </td> <td> 164 </td> <td> 0.65 </td> <td> 253 </td> <td> 193 </td> <td> 0.76 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 2012 </td> <td> 139 </td> <td> 0.55 </td> <td> 255 </td> <td> 192 </td> <td> 0.75 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 2013 </td> <td> 131 </td> <td> 0.51 </td> <td> 255 </td> <td> 197 </td> <td> 0.77 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 2014 </td> <td> 147 </td> <td> 0.57 </td> <td> 256 </td> <td> 201 </td> <td> 0.79 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 2015 </td> <td> 135 </td> <td> 0.53 </td> <td> 256 </td> <td> 205 </td> <td> 0.80 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 2016 </td> <td> 153 </td> <td> 0.60 </td> <td> 255 </td> <td> 199 </td> <td> 0.78 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 2017 </td> <td> 139 </td> <td> 0.55 </td> <td> 255 </td> <td> 208 </td> <td> 0.82 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 2018 </td> <td> 143 </td> <td> 0.56 </td> <td> 256 </td> <td> 203 </td> <td> 0.79 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

YTD Results

Below are YTD Results for our Pick’Ems

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Total Correct </th> <th> Perecent Correct </th> <th> Total Predictions </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> 12 </td> <td> 0.75 </td> <td> 16 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Projections

  • NOTE - Jet's are using their backup QB so the model has a high likelyhood to be incorrect with that pick.
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Home Team </th> <th> Away Team </th> <th> Home Team Score </th> <th> Away Team Score </th> <th> Prob HT Winning </th> <th> Pickem </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Carolina Panthers </td> <td> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td> 38 </td> <td> 26 </td> <td> 0.98 </td> <td> Carolina Panthers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td> 23 </td> <td> 15 </td> <td> 0.97 </td> <td> Cincinnati Bengals </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Detroit Lions </td> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td> 32 </td> <td> 15 </td> <td> 0.98 </td> <td> Detroit Lions </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td> 18 </td> <td> 21 </td> <td> 0.28 </td> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Houston Texans </td> <td> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td> 23 </td> <td> 19 </td> <td> 0.88 </td> <td> Houston Texans </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Miami Dolphins </td> <td> New England Patriots </td> <td> 17 </td> <td> 28 </td> <td> 0.01 </td> <td> New England Patriots </td> </tr> <tr> <td> New York Giants </td> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> <td> 20 </td> <td> 13 </td> <td> 0.91 </td> <td> New York Giants </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> <td> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td> 25 </td> <td> 20 </td> <td> 0.90 </td> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td> 18 </td> <td> 19 </td> <td> 0.17 </td> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td> 22 </td> <td> 17 </td> <td> 0.72 </td> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Washington Redskins </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td> 30 </td> <td> 39 </td> <td> 0.01 </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> 19 </td> <td> 35 </td> <td> 0.01 </td> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Denver Broncos </td> <td> Chicago Bears </td> <td> 19 </td> <td> 24 </td> <td> 0.09 </td> <td> Chicago Bears </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> <td> 25 </td> <td> 24 </td> <td> 0.87 </td> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td> 29 </td> <td> 30 </td> <td> 0.22 </td> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> </tr> <tr> <td> New York Jets </td> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> <td> 30 </td> <td> 17 </td> <td> 0.99 </td> <td> New York Jets </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Questions/Feedback

If anyone has any questions or wants to talk to us, you can find us on in our Slack Channel. Click here to join: PLEASE CLICK ME, WE LOVE TO TALK.