Week 18 SNF Picks
| Pick | Opponent | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 | vs Baltimore Ravens | 2.5U |
| Pick | Line | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Steelers/Ravens Under 41.5 | Game Total | 1U |
Analysis
The Ravens have been overvalued all season. Yes, they played a really nice game against the Packers last weekend. But they've been favored in so many games where they haven't been the better team. I think this is one of those games. These teams are almost identical in defensive stats; middle of the pack against the run and bottom 5 against the pass. Part of the Steelers success comes from their turnover margin. They are 4th in the league at +11, while the Ravens are -2. Neither offense is great, but the Ravens have a huge advantage in their rushing offense over the Steelers. I give the coaching edge to the Steelers, as I trust Mike Tomlin much more than John Harbaugh. These teams played last month in Baltimore and the Steelers won by 5. Now the game is in Pittsburgh and Baltimore is favored? I'll gladly take the points. 60% of the GridironAI spread models like the Steelers to cover with 3.5 points. The GridironAI team scoring model projects a score of 20-17 Ravens, implying value on the Under, and also supporting out +3.5 Steeler play.
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