David's NFL Week 17 Sunday Afternoon Betting Picks & Predictions (with Units)
The GridironAI Betting Model has locked in its top value plays for Week 17 of the NFL season. Using advanced analytics, player performance trends, and line-movement data, these are David's best bets for this week.
David does the research and uses our models so you don't have to. SNF picks will come out in the late afternoon on Sunday.
Week 17 Picks
| Pick | Opponent | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals +7 | vs Cincinnati Bengals | 2U |
| Carolina Panthers +7 | vs Seattle Seahawks | 3U |
| Cleveland Browns +4.5 | vs Pittsburgh Steelers | 2U |
| New Orleans Saints -1.5 | vs Tennessee Titans | 2U |
| Miami Dolphins +5.5 | vs Tampa Bay Bucs | 2U |
| Indianapolis Colts +5 | vs Jacksonville Jaguars | 2U |
| New York Jets +13.5 | vs New England Patriots +7 | 7U |
| New York Giants -2.5 | vs Las Vegas Raiders | 2U |
| Buffalo Bills -3 | vs Philadelphia Eagles | 7U |
| Pick | Line | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Cardinals/Bengals Over 53 | Game Total | 1.5U |
| Steelers/Browns Over 35.5 | Game Total | 1.5U |
| Saints/Titans Over 39.5 | Game Total | 1.5U |
| Bucs/Dolphins Under 44.5 | Game Total | 1U |
| Jaguars/Colts Over 48.5 | Game Total | 1.5U |
| Patriots/Jets Over 42 | Game Total | 1.5U |
| Giants/Raiders Over 41 | Game Total | 1.5U |
| Bills/Eagles Over 44.5 | Game Total | 1.5U |
Bills vs. Eagles Analysis
I say it almost every week in my write up, the Eagles are frauds. Yes, they won their last 2 games, but against bottom 5 opponents. Their stats do not reflect any part of a 10-5 team. And now they are on the road against the Bills. The line was -1.5 last night. It has now moved to -3. I'll take the Bills every time, and twice this Sunday. The Bills are 6-1 at home, with their lone loss being to the Patriots by 3 points. Defensively, these teams are pretty equal. Both have good pass defenses and bad run defenses. But offensively, the Bills are vastly better, boasting the #3 offense compared to an Eagles team that ranks in the bottom half of the league. The Bills have the #1 rushing offense, which will bode well for them against the Eagles #20 ranked rushing defenses. Now the Eagles run game hasn't been great this year, but Saquon could go off against a Bills rush defense that ranks #28. Bottom line is, I don't see any areas where the Eagles are actually better than the Bills. The Bills have a much better offense, and they are at home. So laying only 3 points seems like a gift. This line should be 5 in my opinion. The legacy GridironAI models all love the Bills as well. The spread model has an insane 86% confidence level in the Bills to cover (when the line was 1.5). We know the 70%+ confidence plays do really well (around 65%). I've never seen a number this high. 67% of the new GridironAI spread models like the Bills to cover as well. Even the GridironAI team scoring model projects a score of 27-21 in favor of the Bills, and implying value on the Over 44.5.
Jets vs. Patriots Analysis
This almost feels like a sucker bet. The Jets stink. Although they only lost to the Patriots by 13 at New England last month. Now they are home and playing against a Patriots team that is down a significant number of players including 2 of their top 3 receivers, and 2 of their starting linebacks; one leads the team in tackle, the other in sacks. The Jets have lost by over 20 points each of the last 3 weeks, so I won't be shocked if they get boat raced in this game. But I've also been saying most of the season that the Patriots record is vastly inflated by their powder puff schedule. Divisional games tend to be closer historically, as the opposing team enjoys the opportunity to play spoiler to their rival team; we saw with the Chiefs vs. Broncos on Thursday. I'm going to roll with the analytics on this one. 93% of the new GridironAI spread models like the Jets to cover with 13.5 points. The team scoring model predicts 49 total points (31-18 Patriots), implying valuye on the Over 42, and confirms that with 13.5 points, the Jets should come out ahead.
GridironAI Edge
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All odds current as of publication. Make sure you shop around at different sports books to get the best odds and line to maximize your return. Always wager responsibly.