David's NFL Week 17 Christmas Betting Picks & Predictions (with Units)

The GridironAI Betting Model has locked in its top value plays for Week 17 of the NFL season. Using advanced analytics, player performance trends, and line-movement data, these are David's best bets for this week.

David does the research and uses our models so you don't have to.

Week 17 Picks

Analysis

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays from GridironAI. Unfortunately, Santa left us a lump of coal on TV this year, because these games are probably all going to stink. In each game, we have a 3rd string QB starting. But, that can be an opportunity, as the market tends to overreact to this, as well as what they last saw. That still being the case, I'm going to be a little more conservative on the units. Let's start with Cowboys vs. Commanders. Both teams are eliminated from the playoffs. Commanders are starting long time practice squad QB Josh Johnson. Now unlike rookie QBs, long time vets can perform a little bit better when throw into the mix, because they've been around the game longer. Both these defensives are bottom 3. Even though it's outside in the cold, the Cowboys should be able to score at-will. I think the Commanders can put up a few scores as well, so I'm on Dallas and the over. The GridironAI scoring model projects 53 total points in this game (32-21 Cowboys).

Next, the Lions vs. Vikings. The Vikings will have Max Brosmer under center, who looked awful in his one start against Seattle. But Seattle has a top 5 defense. The Lions do not. And Brosmer has now gotten more practice reps with the 1st team. We know the Lions team can score points, especially in a dome. Remember, the Vikings beat the Lions in Detroit, but that was with J.J. McCarthy as QB. If he was starting, I would take the Vikings to win this game outright. I don't think the downgrade to Brosmer is worth 7.5 points. The GridironAI scoring model projects 51 total points (26-25 Lions). I like the over here as well.

The night cap, Broncos vs. Chiefs. Chiefs starting rookie Chris Oladokun at QB. To me, this is a spot and model play. The Chiefs have massively underperformed all year. 2 weeks ago, they were eliminated from the playoffs and lost Patrick Maholmes for the season with an ACL injury. And what happened against the Titans? They got blown out by the worst the team in the league. So the market is now overreacting and expecting them to get killed by the Broncos and not score points. The Broncos do have a good defense, but their best asset is their home field, and this game is at Arrowhead. With a line like 13.5, you'd expect the Broncos to be playing a team with a 2-13 record. I expect Andy Reid to whip his team around, especially as this is a divisional rivalry game, which historically tend to be closer games. 93% of the GridironAI spread models like the Chiefs to cover with 13.5 points. The GridironAI team scoring model projects 47 total points (29-18 in favor of the Broncos). I like the over here as well.

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All odds current as of publication. Make sure you shop around at different sports books to get the best odds and line to maximize your return. Always wager responsibly.