The GridironAI Betting Model has locked in its top value plays for Week 17 of the NFL season. Using advanced analytics, player performance trends, and line-movement data, these are David's best bets for this week.
David does the research and uses our models so you don't have to. Sunday picks will come out on Sunday morning.
Week 17 Saturday Picks
| Pick | Opponent | Units |
|---|---|---|
| LA Chargers -1.5 | vs Houston Texans | 2.5U |
| Baltimore Ravens +3 | vs Green Bay Packers | 1U |
| Pick | Line | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Chargers/Texans Over 40 | Game Total | 2U |
| Ravens/Packers Over 38 | Game Total | 1U |
The Chargers vs. Texans should be a good game. Both teams are headed to the playoffs and are red hot, winning 7 of their last 8 games. I understand why the total is only 40 (ticked up from 39.5 last night). The Texans defense ranks #1 in yards allowed and points allowed per game. The Chargers defense ranks #4 in points allow, and #8 in yards allowed. We saw last week how the Texans offense looked inept against the lowly Raiders. But the Raiders defense isn't terrible. The are middle of the pack, and they have shut down other offenses like the Broncos. I think the Texans offenses bounces back and puts up some points. But I also expect the Chargers to put up some points. The Chargers offense has been very productive in dome games this season, putting up 34 vs. Cowboys, 37 vs. the Vikings, and 24 vs. the Colts. 67% of the new GridironAI spread models like the Chargers to cover at -2.5, and now we have it down to -1.5 (or even -1 at some books). The GridironAI team scoring model projects 42 points to be scored. And with a 1.5 point spread, a close game could lead to a lot of back and forth late scoring, as well as the potential for overtime, all of which are good for an Over.
Most people are thinking that Green Bay is the right side here, because they are fighting for playoff seeding and a chance to win their division, while the Ravens are mathematically still alive for the playoffs, are basically out. Both teams will be without their starting QBs, but both teams have serviceable backups with Malik Willis and Tyler Huntley. Huntley played well in relief of the injured Lamar Jackson last week against the Patriots, and led the Ravens to a win over the Bears in October. Malik Willis should have led the Packers to a victory over the Bears last week in relief of the injured Jordan Love, if it weren't for a crazy ending that involved an on-side kick. The Ravens have the #3 rushing offense in the league, assuming John Harbaugh remembers to put in Derrick Henry. The Packers have a big edge on defense. They rank #6, while the Ravens rank 6th to last, but a lot of that was driven by early season games, giving up 37+ points to the Chiefs, Lions, Bills, and Texans in 4 of the first 5 weeks. Since then, the defense has been much better. 73% of the new GridironAI spread models like the Ravens to cover with 2.5 points with Jackson as QB, and now it's up to 3 with Huntley as QB. The GridironAI team scoring model projects 48 points to be score, which implies good value on the Over. I'm being cautious on both games, since we didn't have time to fully rerun the models and simulations with Huntley instead of Jackson.
GridironAI Edge
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All odds current as of publication. Make sure you shop around at different sports books to get the best odds and line to maximize your return. Always wager responsibly.