Week 17 SNF Picks
| Pick | Opponent | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears +3.5 | vs SF 49ers | 3U |
| Pick | Line | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Bears/49ers Under 51.5 | Game Total | 2U |
Analysis
This should be a great game, and I'm not just saying that as a bias Chicago Bears fan. These teams have bad blood for each other, going all the way back to their dynasty period in the mid 1980s. I'll start with the total. I understand why the line is 51.5 (ticked down from 52.5 earlier in the week). Both these teams boast top 10 offenses. But their components are very different. The Bears have the #3 rushing offense, while SF is #24. SF has the #5 passing offense, while the Bears rank #13. Neither team is great on defense, both ranking in the bottom half of the league. While the Bears were involved in a bunch of high scoring Over games early in the season, their game score has only eclipsed 50 points 1 time in their past 7 games. The 49ers have been putting up points, but against mediocre defenses (Titans, Colts, Cardinals). We've seen the 49ers struggle in primetime games, only scoring 20 points in Week 7 against the Falcons (albeit with Mac Jones at QB), and only 20 points against the Panthers, where Brock Purdy threw 3 interceptions. I think 51.5 point is too many. The GridironAI team scoring model projects 47 total points, implying that there is value on the Under. In terms of the side, I'm on the Bears. This line was at 3, and now is 3.5. That extra hook is huge, as 3 is the most common margin of victory in the NFL, and the Bears always seem to be involved in close games. Turnovers have been the Bears calling card this season. The rank #1 in the league with a +21 TO margin, compared to -1 for the 49ers. If they can win the TO battle by 1-2, they should easily cover, and possibly win the game. 67% of the new GridironAI spread models like the Bears to cover with 3 points, and now we get the extra hook.
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