NFL Week 17 Pick'em

By Andy Troiano · December 24, 2019

About our Model

The current model is predicting the following information:

  • Probability of Team Winning
  • Home Team and Away Team Score

Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

  • The model does not know about significant roster changes that occur before the current game.
  • Backtested results (below) are the season to date numbers

Backtested Performance Results

The current backtest results are for the first two weeks of the season. This will also give you an idea of the performance if we were using this model all year.

  • Below is the percent correct for the year
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Correct </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> 0.68 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Projections

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Home Team </th> <th> Away Team Name </th> <th> Home Team Prob </th> <th> Pickem </th> <th> Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> <td> New York Jets </td> <td> 0.85 </td> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Carolina Panthers </td> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> <td> 0.14 </td> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> <td> 0.08 </td> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td> Washington Redskins </td> <td> 0.71 </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Detroit Lions </td> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> <td> 0.36 </td> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Houston Texans </td> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> <td> 0.12 </td> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td> 0.08 </td> <td> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td> 0.56 </td> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td> Chicago Bears </td> <td> 0.84 </td> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> New England Patriots </td> <td> Miami Dolphins </td> <td> 0.08 </td> <td> Miami Dolphins </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> New York Giants </td> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td> 0.51 </td> <td> New York Giants </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td> 0.65 </td> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td> 0.13 </td> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Denver Broncos </td> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> <td> 0.08 </td> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td> 0.48 </td> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td> 0.82 </td> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Projected Game Scores

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Home Team Score </th> <th> Away Team Score </th> <th> Home Team </th> <th> Away Team </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> 13 </td> <td> 28 </td> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 21 </td> <td> 27 </td> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 17 </td> <td> 23 </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td> Washington Redskins </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 18 </td> <td> 24 </td> <td> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 13 </td> <td> 30 </td> <td> Carolina Panthers </td> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 19 </td> <td> 24 </td> <td> New England Patriots </td> <td> Miami Dolphins </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 16 </td> <td> 30 </td> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 14 </td> <td> 29 </td> <td> Denver Broncos </td> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 14 </td> <td> 32 </td> <td> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 8 </td> <td> 33 </td> <td> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td> Indianapolis Colts </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 15 </td> <td> 25 </td> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td> Arizona Cardinals </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 13 </td> <td> 35 </td> <td> Houston Texans </td> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 17 </td> <td> 23 </td> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td> Chicago Bears </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 12 </td> <td> 31 </td> <td> New York Giants </td> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 17 </td> <td> 26 </td> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> <td> New York Jets </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 12 </td> <td> 34 </td> <td> Detroit Lions </td> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Questions/Feedback

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