Week 16 SNF Picks
| Pick | Opponent | Units |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots +3.5 | vs Baltimore Ravens | 8U |
| Pick | Line | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Patriots/Ravens Under 48.5 | Game Total | 1.5U |
Analysis
This is one of those lines that seems fishy to me. I know the Ravens are at home, Lamar Jackson is a stud, and the Patriots have had a powder puff schedule, but to me this seems like a pick-em line. The Patriots have a Top 5 defense, while Baltimore's is middle of the pack. Baltimore's weakness is against the pass, where they are 7th to last, which means Drake Maye, who is in the race for MVP, could have a field day against them. The Patriots also have a top 10 offense, while Baltimore is middle of the pack (albeit they were missing Lamar Jackson for several games). Honestly, I don't see any areas where Baltimore's game is more effective than the Patriots, aside for Lamar Jackson's running ability, and Derrick Henry. Plus, the spot favors the Patriots, who are coming off a tough lose to the Bills where they blew a 21-0 lead. And they are fighting for the division and top seed in the playoffs. 100% of the new GridironAI spread models like the Patriots to cover with 3 points, and now we're getting the extra hook, which is huge, because 3 is the most common margin of victory in the NFL (happens 15% of the time). The GridironAI team scoring model projects 45 total points, implying value on the under.
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