NFL Week 16 Pick'em

By Andy Troiano · December 18, 2019

About our Model

The current model is predicting the following information:

  • Probability of Team Winning
  • Home Team and Away Team Score

Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

  • The model does not know about significant roster changes that occur before the current game.
  • Backtested results (below) are the season to date numbers

Backtested Performance Results

The current backtest results are for the first two weeks of the season. This will also give you an idea of the performance if we were using this model all year.

  • Below is the percent correct for the year
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Correct </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> 0.7 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Below is a table that outlines how the model does with the individual predictions. This is useful if you want to use our predictions as a guide. Note- The current sample is small, so any broad conclusions you make need to be discounted.

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> predict </th> <th> Total Correct </th> <th> Total Pred </th> <th> Correct % </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> away\_team\_wins </td> <td> 62 </td> <td> 82 </td> <td> 0.76 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> home\_team\_wins </td> <td> 95 </td> <td> 141 </td> <td> 0.67 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Projections

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Home Team </th> <th> Away Team Name </th> <th> Home Team Prob </th> <th> Pickem </th> <th> Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td> 0.79 </td> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td> 0.15 </td> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td> Carolina Panthers </td> <td> 0.76 </td> <td> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Denver Broncos </td> <td> Detroit Lions </td> <td> 0.59 </td> <td> Denver Broncos </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Miami Dolphins </td> <td> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td> 0.80 </td> <td> Miami Dolphins </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> New England Patriots </td> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> <td> 0.73 </td> <td> New England Patriots </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> New York Jets </td> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td> 0.65 </td> <td> New York Jets </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> <td> 0.55 </td> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> <td> 0.73 </td> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td> 0.73 </td> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td> Houston Texans </td> <td> 0.75 </td> <td> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Washington Redskins </td> <td> New York Giants </td> <td> 0.31 </td> <td> New York Giants </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td> 0.23 </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td> 0.86 </td> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Chicago Bears </td> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> 0.17 </td> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> <td> 0.81 </td> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Projected Game Scores

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Home Team Score </th> <th> Away Team Score </th> <th> Home Team </th> <th> Away Team </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> 24 </td> <td> 24 </td> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 25 </td> <td> 30 </td> <td> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td> Houston Texans </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 22 </td> <td> 20 </td> <td> Miami Dolphins </td> <td> Cincinnati Bengals </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 13 </td> <td> 35 </td> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 23 </td> <td> 27 </td> <td> Chicago Bears </td> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 23 </td> <td> 24 </td> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 22 </td> <td> 25 </td> <td> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td> Carolina Panthers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 23 </td> <td> 19 </td> <td> New England Patriots </td> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 23 </td> <td> 25 </td> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 27 </td> <td> 20 </td> <td> Denver Broncos </td> <td> Detroit Lions </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 18 </td> <td> 25 </td> <td> Washington Redskins </td> <td> New York Giants </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 20 </td> <td> 21 </td> <td> New York Jets </td> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 28 </td> <td> 20 </td> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 30 </td> <td> 20 </td> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td> Arizona Cardinals </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 26 </td> <td> 20 </td> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 24 </td> <td> 28 </td> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Questions/Feedback

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