David's NFL Week 15 Thursday Night Football Betting Picks & Predictions (with Units)

The GridironAI Betting Model has locked in its top value plays for Week 15 of the NFL season. Using advanced analytics, player performance trends, and line-movement data, these are David's best bets for this week.

David does the research and uses our models so you don't have to. Sunday picks will come out on Sunday morning.

Week 15 TNF Picks

After a couple of really good primetime games last week, tonight could be some really bad football. The Bucs will be suiting up in the old school creamsicle jerseys, and hopefully this will aid in them playing like the terrible Bucs teams of the 70s and 80s. #1 WR, Mike Evans, is expected to play tonight for the first time in almost 2 months. This will certainly help the Bucs, but this will be offset by the likely missing of TE Cade Otton. The Falcons are still without #1 WR, Drake London, and Kirk Cousins is still starting at QB for the injured Michael Penix. Cousins has been ok in his last few starts, but not great. The Bucs, meanwhile, once sitting at 6-2 atop their division, have dropped 4 of their last 5 games (albeit 3 of them to playoff teams), but in the last 2 weeks the lost to the Saints and barely beat the Cardinals. One reason has been Baker Mayfield's performance. Once considered a contender for the MVP award, his completion percentage in his last 4 games has only been 54%, and he has only thrown 4 TDs while also throwing 4 interceptions. I believe this game will rest squarely on the Falcons defense, which is scary when considering they just gave up 37 points to the Seahawks, and 27 to the Jets. The Falcon's strength is their pass defense, which ranks in the top 10. They are also 3rd in sacks. If they can put pressure on Mayfield and force errant throws and get some sacks, they should be able to contain this Bucs offense. Tampa's pass defense ranks in the bottom 10, so this should make life easier for Kirk Cousins. 80% of the new GridironAI spread models like the Falcons to cover with 4.5 points, and today the line has been moving and is now up to 5.5 points. The GridironAI team scoring model projects a score of 27-14 in favor of the Falcons, which reconfirms we are the right side with Atlanta, and with 41 projected points, implies value on the Under 43.5 (this has dropped down from 44 early today).

GridironAI Edge

Our AI model simulates each matchup 10,000+ times to uncover hidden value versus market odds.
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All odds current as of publication. Make sure you shop around at different sports books to get the best odds and line to maximize your return. Always wager responsibly.