NFL Week 15 Pick'Em

By Andy Troiano · December 11, 2019

About our Model

The current model is predicting the following information:

  • Probability of Team Winning
  • Home Team and Away Team Score

Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

  • The model does not know about significant roster changes that occurs before the current game.
  • Backtested results (below) are the season to date numbers

Backtested Performance Results

The current backtest results are for the first two weeks of the season. This will also give you an idea of the performance if we were using this model all year.

  • Below is the percent correct for the year
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Correct </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> 0.71 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Below is a table that outlines how the model does with the individual predictions. This is useful if you want to use our predictions as a guide. Note- The current sample is small, so any broad conclusions you make need to be discounted.

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> predict </th> <th> Total Correct </th> <th> Total Pred </th> <th> Correct % </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> away\_team\_wins </td> <td> 58 </td> <td> 77 </td> <td> 0.75 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> home\_team\_wins </td> <td> 89 </td> <td> 130 </td> <td> 0.68 </td> </tr> </tbody> ### Game Projections <table> <thead> <tr> <th> Home Team </th> <th> Away Team Name </th> <th> Home Team Prob </th> <th> Pickem </th> <th> Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td> New York Jets </td> <td> 0.80 </td> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Carolina Panthers </td> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td> 0.36 </td> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td> New England Patriots </td> <td> 0.32 </td> <td> New England Patriots </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Detroit Lions </td> <td> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td> 0.21 </td> <td> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> <td> Chicago Bears </td> <td> 0.81 </td> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> Denver Broncos </td> <td> 0.94 </td> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> New York Giants </td> <td> Miami Dolphins </td> <td> 0.56 </td> <td> New York Giants </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> <td> Houston Texans </td> <td> 0.65 </td> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> <td> 0.63 </td> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Washington Redskins </td> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td> 0.41 </td> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> <td> 0.39 </td> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> <td> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td> 0.74 </td> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td> 0.57 </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td> 0.88 </td> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td> 0.40 </td> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> <td> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td> 0.49 </td> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Projected Game Scores

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Home Team Score </th> <th> Away Team Score </th> <th> Home Team </th> <th> Away Team </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> 19 </td> <td> 25 </td> <td> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 23 </td> <td> 26 </td> <td> Detroit Lions </td> <td> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 23 </td> <td> 25 </td> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 27 </td> <td> 20 </td> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> <td> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 30 </td> <td> 22 </td> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> <td> Indianapolis Colts </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 21 </td> <td> 23 </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 30 </td> <td> 17 </td> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td> New York Jets </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 13 </td> <td> 29 </td> <td> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td> New England Patriots </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 18 </td> <td> 23 </td> <td> Washington Redskins </td> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 29 </td> <td> 22 </td> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> <td> Houston Texans </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 26 </td> <td> 19 </td> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> <td> Chicago Bears </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 16 </td> <td> 26 </td> <td> Carolina Panthers </td> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 17 </td> <td> 21 </td> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 29 </td> <td> 17 </td> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> Denver Broncos </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 32 </td> <td> 19 </td> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 23 </td> <td> 21 </td> <td> New York Giants </td> <td> Miami Dolphins </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Questions/Feedback

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