David's NFL Week 14 Thursday Night Football Betting Picks & Predictions (with Units)

The GridironAI Betting Model has locked in its top value plays for Week 14 of the NFL season. Using advanced analytics, player performance trends, and line-movement data, these are David's best bets for this week.

David does the research and uses our models so you don't have to. Sunday picks will come out on Sunday morning.

Week 14 TNF Picks

The line was at 3 all morning, and just moved to 3.5, indicating some sharp action on the Lions. I'm not buying it, and I'll gladly take the extra hook. This is not the same Lions team the finished #1 in the NFC regular season last year. They have some serious issues. Let's start on the offensive side. They still have some amazing weapons with Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown. But the loss of Sam LaPorta at Tight End has really hurt their productivity (and now they are on their 3rd string TE). Last game, Lions Tight Ends were only targeted 4 times with 2 receptions. LaPorta was averaging 6 targets and 4.5 receiptions per game. Losing that TE threat, means the opposing defense can give more coverage attention to the RBs and WRs, making them less effective. The Lions offensive line is also banged up. They already lost starting RG Christian Mahogany to IR, and 4 of their 5 current OL starters are listed as Questionable. Even if they play, their effectiveness could be reduced if they are not 100% healthy. On the defensive side of the ball, the Lions will be without starting CB Terrion Arnold, who was placed on IR this week. The Lions defense has faced the 5th easiest schedule of opposing QBs by EPA (expected points added), this season. They have only faced two top 12 QBS by EPA; Love x2, Maholmes. In those games, Love and Maholmes had their 3rd, 4th, and 2nd best games of the season. Lamar Jackson has had his 2nd best EPA game of the season against the Lions. Dak ranks 5th in EPA, so I expect him to tear up this Lions defense. Dallas is riding a 3 game win streak, and playing well on both sides of the ball. Statistically their defensive numbers are still really bad, but they are trending in the right direction, buoyed by the trade deadline addition of Defensive tackle Quinnen Williams. Dallas has the #2 scoring offense, averaging 28.5 points per game, and #1 offense in yards per game. The Lions rank #4 in yards per game, but are middle of the pack in scoring at 22.8, and they are definitely trending downwards, as they have been held to 24 or fewer points in 5 of their last 7 games. One reason, in my opinion, Dan Campbell's over zealousness to go for it on 4th down. He doesn't believe in punting, or kicking field goals. This can be both good and bad for scoring, but will generally help an under, especially if drives stall inside the redzone, resulting in turnover on downs. Even though the game is in Detroit, the field will play very similarly to the comforts to Cowboys Stadium. 86% of the new GridironAI spread models like the Cowboys to cover with 3 points, and now we get the extra hook. I wouldn't be surprise if they win the game. The total of 54.5 is the highest of the season, and I can understand why, with 2 explosive offenses. The GridironAI team scoring model projects a score of 27-25 in favor of the Lions. At 52 total points, that implies value on the Under 54.5.

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All odds current as of publication. Make sure you shop around at different sports books to get the best odds and line to maximize your return. Always wager responsibly.