Week 14 SNF Picks
| Pick | Opponent | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans +4.5 | vs Denver Broncos | 4U |
| Pick | Line | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Texans / Chiefs Overs 41.5 | Game Total | 2U |
Analysis
Except for the game being at Arrowhead, I honestly don't understand why the Chiefs are favored, especially by more than a FG. Seems like it's the Maholmes tax, which I'm happy to take on the other side. The Texans have won 5 of their 6 last games, including wins over several playoff teams; Colts, Bills, Jaguars, 49ers, and their lone loss was against the Broncos (also playoff bound) with Davis Mills as QB. The Texans have the #1 defense in the league, and are Top 4 against both the pass and run. This Kansas City team has struggled against strong defenses, such as the Broncos and Eagles. This game feels like it's going to come down a game winning FG, so I want the points in my pocket with the Texans. 73% of the new GridironAI models like the Texans to cover with 3.5 points, and now we are getting 4.5. The GridironaAI team scoring model projects 45 points to be score, which implies value on the Over 41.5. I understand the low total given the Texans defense, but this should be a 24-21 type of game.
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