NFL Week 14 Pick'Em

By Andy Troiano · December 04, 2019

About our Model

The current model is predicting the following information:

  • Probability of Team Winning
  • Home Team and Away Team Score

Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

  • The model does not know about significant roster changes that occur before the current game.
  • Backtested results (below) are the season to date numbers

Backtested Performance Results

The current backtest results are for the first two weeks of the season. This will also give you an idea of the performance if we were using this model all year.

  • Below is the percent correct for the year
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Correct </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> 0.7 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Below is a table that outlines how the model does with the individual predictions. This is useful if you want to use our predictions as a guide. Note- The current sample is small, so any broad conclusions you make need to be discounted.

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> predict </th> <th> Total Correct </th> <th> Total Pred </th> <th> Correct % </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> away\_team\_wins </td> <td> 50 </td> <td> 66 </td> <td> 0.76 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> home\_team\_wins </td> <td> 75 </td> <td> 113 </td> <td> 0.66 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Projections

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Home Team </th> <th> Away Team Name </th> <th> Home Team Prob </th> <th> Pickem </th> <th> Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Chicago Bears </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td> 0.33 </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td> Carolina Panthers </td> <td> 0.45 </td> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td> 0.63 </td> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> <td> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td> 0.51 </td> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> <td> Washington Redskins </td> <td> 0.46 </td> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Houston Texans </td> <td> Denver Broncos </td> <td> 0.46 </td> <td> Houston Texans </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td> Detroit Lions </td> <td> 0.87 </td> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td> 0.55 </td> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> New York Jets </td> <td> Miami Dolphins </td> <td> 0.49 </td> <td> New York Jets </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td> 0.43 </td> <td> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td> 0.25 </td> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td> 0.27 </td> <td> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> New England Patriots </td> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> 0.44 </td> <td> New England Patriots </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> <td> 0.28 </td> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td> 0.39 </td> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td> New York Giants </td> <td> 0.45 </td> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Projected Game Scores

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Home Team Score </th> <th> Away Team Score </th> <th> Home Team </th> <th> Away Team </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> 15 </td> <td> 27 </td> <td> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 28 </td> <td> 20 </td> <td> Houston Texans </td> <td> Denver Broncos </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 31 </td> <td> 19 </td> <td> New York Jets </td> <td> Miami Dolphins </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 23 </td> <td> 20 </td> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> <td> Cincinnati Bengals </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 27 </td> <td> 22 </td> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 26 </td> <td> 25 </td> <td> New England Patriots </td> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 27 </td> <td> 25 </td> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 29 </td> <td> 18 </td> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td> New York Giants </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 16 </td> <td> 33 </td> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 30 </td> <td> 18 </td> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td> Detroit Lions </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 23 </td> <td> 24 </td> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td> Carolina Panthers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 19 </td> <td> 24 </td> <td> Chicago Bears </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 28 </td> <td> 15 </td> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> <td> Washington Redskins </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 20 </td> <td> 23 </td> <td> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td> Indianapolis Colts </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 23 </td> <td> 22 </td> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 20 </td> <td> 26 </td> <td> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Questions/Feedback

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