David's NFL Week 13 Thanksgiving Day Betting Picks & Predictions (with Units)

The GridironAI Betting Model has locked in its top value plays for Week 13 of the NFL season. Using advanced analytics, player performance trends, and line-movement data, these are David's best bets for this week.

David does the research and uses our models so you don't have to.

Week 13 Thanksgiving Day Picks

Chiefs vs. Cowboys Analysis

Let's start with the total. I can see why the line is 52.5. Dallas has been an Over machine for most the season, with a solid offense and an awful defense. The offense is still good, but has come back to earth a bit. But more importantly, this is not the same defense that was routinely giving up 30+ points per game. Defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, who was acquired at the trade deadline, has had a sizeable impact on the Cowboys defense; stuffing the run, and getting pressure on QBs. The Chiefs success this season has been bolstered much more by their defense, which is top 10 against both the past and the run, than their offense. While the indoor stadium in Arlington can be a fast track for points, 52.5 is just way too high. The GridironAI team scoring model projects 43 total points. In terms of the spread, again I can see why the line is Chiefs -3/3.5. Dallas is at home, and coming off a big win over the Eagles. But we've still seen this Dallas team lay some eggs against bad teams; losing to the Cardinals by 10 at home and the Panthers. While their Chiefs haven't been the same Chiefs as years past, the are better than their 6-5 record. All of their losses have been to playoff bound teams, and they have easily handled their business against weaker teams. One factor that is often talked about for Thursday games is coaching, because of the short turnaround. I gave Andy Reid a huge edge in this category, and I think the Chiefs come ready to play. There are some Chiefs -3 lines at -115/-120 right now, or you can get -3.5 for even money. Both are good plays. 67% of the new GridironAI spread models like the Chiefs to cover at -3.5. But given that 3 is the most common margin of victory in the NFL (happening 15% of the time), the juice for the hook is a good investment for 15-20 cents.

Bengals vs. Ravens Analysis

Joe Burrow will be making his first start since getting hurt in Week 2. While Joe Flacco has been a serviceable veteran backup, Burrow is an elite QB; top 5 in the league. Burrow will be missing his second favorite target, WR Tee Higgins, this week, but he gets his favorite target, #1 WR Jamar Chase, back from suspension. Unfortunately Joe Burrow doesn't play defense, which is where the Bengals really stink, and rank dead last in the league. But having Burrow back does help the defense. The Bengals rank dead last in time of possession. Having a more productive offense that can sustain drives, will mean less time on the field for the defense. Their defense has been playing better the last 2 weeks. Although the Steelers scored 34 points on them, 14 of those were defensive scores. They also held the Patriots to 26 points. On the other side of the ball, the Ravens, once left for dead after starting 1-5, are riding a 5 game win streak, and now sit atop the AFC Central at 6-5. The big reason for this turnaround? Ok, obviously getting Lamar Jackson back makes their offense infinitely better. But it's been the defense. The first 6 games they gave up an average of 32.2 points per game. In their last 5 games, just 15.4 points per game. The offense has been consistent, scoring 23-30 points in each of those 5 games. While they now play the last ranked Bungals defense, the game total of 51.5 is just too high. The GridironAI team scoring model projects a total of 45 points. 100% of the new GridironAI spread models like the Bengals to cover at 7, and some books now have 7.5 for a little extra juice (-115). Although only 3 weeks into productionalized testing, when 80% or more of the models like a team to cover, those picks are 10-2. The 2 picks when there was 100% model consensus, were both winners (Bears +3 vs. Vikings in Week 11, and Seahawks +3.5 vs. Rams in Week 11).

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All odds current as of publication. Make sure you shop around at different sports books to get the best odds and line to maximize your return. Always wager responsibly.