Week 13 SNF Picks
| Pick | Opponent | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders +6.5 | vs Denver Broncos | 2U |
| Pick | Line | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Commanders / Broncos Under 43.5 | Game Total | 2U |
Analysis
The Commanders get their #1 WR, Terry McLaurin, back tonight. Although backup QB, Marcus Mariotta, is still starting, this will be a big lift to the Commanders offense. The Commanders are riding a 6 game losing streak, and 4 of those games have been blowouts. Statistically, these offenses are pretty even. Defense on the other hand, big difference. The Broncos rank #3, and the Commanders are 2nd to last. Both teams are prone to turnovers, the Commanders have 14 and the Broncos have 12. But the Broncos defense has forced 9 turnovers, compared to only 6 for the Commanders. 60% of the new GridironAI spread models like the Commanders to cover. The team scoring model has a projected score of 20-15 in favor of the Broncos, which implies value on the Under 43.5. Given the huge defensive edge, it would seem like the Broncos are the right play. But diving deeper, most of the Broncos success has happened at home, where they have the huge advantage of the altitude. On the road, they are 2-2 this season, with their 2 wins being by 3 and 4 points. Being at Washington, 6.5 points is just too many.
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