David's NFL Week 13 Monday Night Football Betting Picks & Predictions (with Units)

The GridironAI Betting Model has locked in its top value plays for Week 13 of the NFL season. Using advanced analytics, player performance trends, and line-movement data, these are David's best bets for this week.

David does the research and uses our models so you don't have to.

Week 13 MNF Picks

Game Analysis

The Patriots have been the darling of the NFL this season, and Drake Maye is second favorite to win league MVP. Me, I'm not a believer in this team. And it starts with their powder puff schedule. Their SOS is .371, which is one of the easiest in the all time history of the NFL! To put things in perspective, the next easiest strength of schedule this season is .444. Their SOS is 3.3 sigmas of standard deviation. 3 sigma represents 99.7% of all likely outcomes, which means, their schedule is so far beyond the statistical norm, that it would fail all quality control metrics. And ironically, their SOS will get even weaker this week after playing the Giants. The Giants have basically been 3 different teams this season. First with Russell Wilson as QB, their offense was anemic, failing to scoring double digit points in 2 of his 3 starts. Then Jaxson Dart took over for the next 5 games, the the offense improve significantly. Unfortunately he got hurt, and Jameis Winston, the former interception king, took over. Most people, myself included, were very bearish on the Giants with Winston at QB. But the offense has continued to play well, putting up 20 and 27 points against the Packers and Lions, respectively. They've been losing because of their defense. But their last 7 games have been against 6 playoff teams; Eagles twice, Broncos, 49ers, Bears, Packers, and Lions. In those 7 games they won once, and lost by 7 or less 4 times. Their offense ranks top 12 on the ground and passing (even considering the 3 games with Russell Wilson). The Patriots have the #3 pass offense, and are middle of the pack in rushing. Defense is a different story. The Giants rank dead last in rush defense, and bottom third in pass defense. The Patriots have the #2 run defense, and are middle of the past in pass defense. I think the Giants weak run defense can stand up against a weaker Patriots ground game. I'm also going to ride the trend that defenses are improving. We've seen the other bottom 4 defensive teams all improve in the last 2 weeks; Commanders (gave up 16 and 20 points in regulation), Bengals (gave up 14 and 26 points), and Cowboys (gave up 21 and 28 point). 73% of the new GridironAI spread models like the Giants to cover with 7.5 points. The GridironAI team scoring model projects 43 points to be scored, which implies value on the Under 46.5.

GridironAI Edge

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All odds current as of publication. Make sure you shop around at different sports books to get the best odds and line to maximize your return. Always wager responsibly.