NFL Week 13 Pick'Em

By Andy Troiano · November 27, 2019

About our Model

The current model is predicting the following information:

  • Probability of Team Winning
  • Home Team and Away Team Score

Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

  • The model does not know about significant roster changes that occur before the current game.
  • Backtested results (below) are the season to date numbers

Backtested Performance Results

The current backtest results are for the first two weeks of the season. This will also give you an idea of the performance if we were using this model all year.

  • Below is the percent correct for the year
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Correct </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> 0.71 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Below is a table that outlines how the model does with the individual predictions. This is useful if you want to use our forecasts as a guide. Note- The current sample is small, so any broad conclusions you make need to be discounted.

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> predict </th> <th> Total Correct </th> <th> Total Pred </th> <th> Correct % </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> away\_team\_wins </td> <td> 48 </td> <td> 64 </td> <td> 0.75 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> home\_team\_wins </td> <td> 76 </td> <td> 111 </td> <td> 0.68 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Projections

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Home Team </th> <th> Away Team Name </th> <th> Home Team Prob </th> <th> Pickem </th> <th> Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Detroit Lions </td> <td> Chicago Bears </td> <td> 0.35 </td> <td> Chicago Bears </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> <td> 0.82 </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> <td> 0.29 </td> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Carolina Panthers </td> <td> Washington Redskins </td> <td> 0.82 </td> <td> Carolina Panthers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td> New York Jets </td> <td> 0.29 </td> <td> New York Jets </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> <td> 0.55 </td> <td> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td> 0.58 </td> <td> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> <td> 0.86 </td> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Miami Dolphins </td> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td> 0.31 </td> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> New York Giants </td> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> <td> 0.41 </td> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td> 0.85 </td> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td> 0.27 </td> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Denver Broncos </td> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td> 0.45 </td> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> <td> 0.54 </td> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Houston Texans </td> <td> New England Patriots </td> <td> 0.57 </td> <td> Houston Texans </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td> 0.47 </td> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td> High </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Projected Game Scores

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Home Team Score </th> <th> Away Team Score </th> <th> Home Team </th> <th> Away Team </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> 21 </td> <td> 29 </td> <td> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 28 </td> <td> 19 </td> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 21 </td> <td> 21 </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 28 </td> <td> 23 </td> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 21 </td> <td> 26 </td> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 23 </td> <td> 22 </td> <td> Denver Broncos </td> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 24 </td> <td> 25 </td> <td> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 18 </td> <td> 23 </td> <td> Miami Dolphins </td> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 15 </td> <td> 31 </td> <td> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 15 </td> <td> 24 </td> <td> Detroit Lions </td> <td> Chicago Bears </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 16 </td> <td> 26 </td> <td> New York Giants </td> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 21 </td> <td> 22 </td> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 23 </td> <td> 22 </td> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 23 </td> <td> 17 </td> <td> Carolina Panthers </td> <td> Washington Redskins </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 19 </td> <td> 22 </td> <td> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td> New York Jets </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 23 </td> <td> 25 </td> <td> Houston Texans </td> <td> New England Patriots </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Questions/Feedback

If anyone has any questions or wants to talk to us, you can find us on our Slack Channel. Click here to join: PLEASE CLICK ME, WE LOVE TO TALK.