David's NFL Week 12 Thursday Night Football Betting Picks & Predictions (with Units)

The GridironAI Betting Model has locked in its top value plays for Week 12 of the NFL season. Using advanced analytics, player performance trends, and line-movement data, these are David's best bets for this week.

David does the research and uses our models so you don't have to. Sunday picks will come out on Sunday morning.

Week 12 TNF Picks

The line has been pretty stable around 5.5. It ticked up to 6 yesterday, but has since come back to 5.5. Let's start with the Bills. This team has been all over the place this season; big wins over the Bucs, Chiefs and Ravens (all at home), pounded the Jets and Panthers (on the road), and then bad losses to the Dolphins and Falcons (on the road). Which version of the Bills will show up tonight? In some sense, I'm not sure it matters all that much. Even a bad version of the Bills should easily win this game. There has been some concern about the injuries to Bills pass catchers, but that doesn't worry me much. Dalton Kincaid is out again tonight, but Dawson Knox is a great backup, and was the #1 TE for several seasons with the Bills. Curtis Samuel and Mecole Hardman are out from the WR ranks, and Keon Coleman is being benched for the second straight week. That just means the guys like Josh Palmer and Tyrell Shavers, will have to step back up. On the other side of the ball, the Texans have the #1 ranked defense, but the Davis Mills led offense is inept. Aside from a wacky 4th quarter against the Jaguars, the Texans are scoring 15 points per game with Mills under center. The Bills have the #2 ranked pass defense, but the 2nd to worst run defense. This means that the Texans pass game should be ineffective, and they will have to rely on the run game. But that isn't their forte, as they rank in the bottom third of the league in yards per carry and total rushing yards per game, and even worse when adjusting for the absense of CJ Stroud, who was averaging 6.5 yards per carry. In the last 3 games, where Mills has been starting, the Texans have averaged 94 yards rushing and 3.86 yards per carry, both of which would be bottom 5 in the league. As long as the Bills don't lose the turnover battle by a wide margin, they should easily win this game. The GridironAI moneyline models has Buffalo winning at 73-75%. At the current odds of -258, that implies a 1-3% edge on this bet. The spread model has Buffalo cover the -5.5 at 59% confidence. The team total projects 35 total points in this game, which implies value on the under 43.5. This has the making of a 27-13 type of game.

GridironAI Edge

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All odds current as of publication. Make sure you shop around at different sports books to get the best odds and line to maximize your return. Always wager responsibly.