NFL Week 12 Pick'Em

By Andy Troiano · November 21, 2019

About our Model

The current model is predicting the following information:

  • Probability of Team Winning
  • Home Team and Away Team Score

Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

  • The model does not know about significant roster changes that occur before the current game.
  • Backtested results (below) are the season to date numbers

Backtested Performance Results

The current backtest results are for the first two weeks of the season. This will also give you an idea of the performance if we were using this model all year.

  • Below is the percent correct for the year
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Correct </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> 0.7 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Below is a table that outlines how the model does with the individual predictions. This is useful if you want to use our predictions as a guide. Note- The current sample is small so any broad conclusions you make need to be discounted.

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> predict </th> <th> Total Correct </th> <th> Total Pred </th> <th> Correct % </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> away\_team\_wins </td> <td> 45 </td> <td> 59 </td> <td> 0.76 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> home\_team\_wins </td> <td> 68 </td> <td> 102 </td> <td> 0.67 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Projections

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Home Team </th> <th> Away Team Name </th> <th> Home Team Prob </th> <th> Pickem </th> <th> Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Houston Texans </td> <td> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td> 0.62 </td> <td> Houston Texans </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td> 0.50 </td> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> <td> Denver Broncos </td> <td> 0.72 </td> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Chicago Bears </td> <td> New York Giants </td> <td> 0.75 </td> <td> Chicago Bears </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td> 0.29 </td> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> <td> Miami Dolphins </td> <td> 0.92 </td> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> <td> Carolina Panthers </td> <td> 0.75 </td> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> New York Jets </td> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> <td> 0.49 </td> <td> New York Jets </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Washington Redskins </td> <td> Detroit Lions </td> <td> 0.30 </td> <td> Detroit Lions </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> <td> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td> 0.70 </td> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> New England Patriots </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td> 0.68 </td> <td> New England Patriots </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> <td> 0.75 </td> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td> 0.37 </td> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td> 0.37 </td> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Projected Game Scores

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Home Team Score </th> <th> Away Team Score </th> <th> Home Team </th> <th> Away Team </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> 26 </td> <td> 19 </td> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> <td> Carolina Panthers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 24 </td> <td> 20 </td> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> <td> Denver Broncos </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 26 </td> <td> 20 </td> <td> New England Patriots </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 23 </td> <td> 22 </td> <td> Houston Texans </td> <td> Indianapolis Colts </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 21 </td> <td> 23 </td> <td> New York Jets </td> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 19 </td> <td> 23 </td> <td> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 26 </td> <td> 19 </td> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 22 </td> <td> 22 </td> <td> Washington Redskins </td> <td> Detroit Lions </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 27 </td> <td> 20 </td> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 28 </td> <td> 16 </td> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> <td> Miami Dolphins </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 25 </td> <td> 19 </td> <td> Chicago Bears </td> <td> New York Giants </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 23 </td> <td> 22 </td> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 24 </td> <td> 23 </td> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 28 </td> <td> 16 </td> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> <td> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Questions/Feedback

If anyone has any questions or wants to talk to us, you can find us on our Slack Channel. Click here to join: PLEASE CLICK ME, WE LOVE TO TALK.