David's NFL Week 11 Sunday Afternoon Betting Picks & Predictions (with Units)
The GridironAI Betting Model has locked in its top value plays for Week 11 of the NFL season. Using advanced analytics, player performance trends, and line-movement data, these are David's best bets for this week.
David does the research and uses our models so you don't have to. SNF picks will come out in the late afternoon on Sunday.
Week 11 Picks
| Pick | Opponent | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Bucs +6 | vs Buffalo Bills | 8U |
| Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 | vs Pittsburgh Steelers | 4U |
| Baltimore Ravens -7.5 | vs Cleveland Browns | 2U |
| Atlanta Falcons -3.5 | vs Carolina Panthers | 2U |
| Tennessee Titans +5.5 | vs Houston Texans | 2U |
| Green Bay Packers -7 | vs New York Giants | 1U |
| Los Angeles Chargers Moneyline | vs Jacksonville Jaguars | 3U |
| Denver Broncos +4.5 | vs Kansas City Chiefs | 8U |
| Pick | Line | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Packers / Giants Over 41.5 | Game Total | 2U |
| Bengals / Steelers Over 48.5 | Game Total | 2U |
| Texans / Titans Under 37.5 | Game Total | 2U |
| Bears / Vikings Under 48.5 | Game Total | 2U |
| Cardinals / 49ers Over 48 | Game Total | 2U |
| Jaguars / Chargers Over 43.5 | Game Total | 1U |
| Seahawks / Rams Over 48.5 | Game Total | 3U |
| Ravens / Browns Over 38.5 | Game Total | 1U |
| Chiefs / Broncos Under 45.5 | Game Total | 2U |
Bucs vs. Bills Analysis
The GridironAI spread model has the Bucs covering at 70%. This is a huge number. Over the past 1.5 season, when the GridironAI spread model has a probability over 70%, those picks are 22-13, not quite the 70% win rate, but winning at 63% is really solid. This line was at 5.5 most of the week and has ticked up to 6 with steam on the Bills. The Bucs have been solid all season. Their 3 losses have come to 3 of the best teams in the league; Eagles, Lions, and Patriots, and 2 of those have come by 6 points or less. The Bills have been inconsistent this season, with strong wins over the the Chiefs and Ravens, and then laying an egg against the Dolphins and Falcons (albeit both of those games were on the road). The betting public seems to think that the Bills are due for a bounceback after last week's lackluster performance against the Dolphins. Plus the cold weather (40 degrees), favors the Bills over a warm weather Florida team. These teams are fairly balanced in most areas. The Bills have a much strong running game, but they are also much sloppier with the football in terms of turnovers. I think the Bills will win, but 6 points is just too many for how good this Tampa Bay team is. I'm riding with the Bucs +6 in this game.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Analysis
The GridironAI spread model has the Broncos covering at 73%. This is a huge number. Over the past 1.5 season, when the GridironAI spread model has a probability over 70%, those picks are 22-13, not quite the 70% win rate, but winning at 63% is really solid. This line opened at 3 earlier in the week and has been slowly trickling up to 4.5. The Chiefs seem to have found their groove after their 0-2. But their are 1-2 on the road this season. The Broncos are 5-0 at home, with the huge advantage that comes from playing at altitude. The Broncos haven't looked good in their past few games, especially on offense, mustering just 18 and 10 points against the Texans and Raiders, respectively. But their defense has been stout. Their defense is #3 in the league, and top 6 against both the pass and run. The Chiefs defense is also top 10 in both categories. The Chiefs have the strong offense, and they have the best QB in the league with Patrick Maholmes. This should be a great game to watch. I think the Chiefs will win, but 4.5 points is too many. If this game were at Arrowhead, that would be a different story, but for Denver at home, I'm gonna take the points. The game could come down to a last minute field goal. The team scoring models has a prediction of 21-19 in favor of the Chiefs, which implies value on the Under 45.5.
GridironAI Edge
Our AI model simulates each matchup 10,000+ times to uncover hidden value versus market odds.
Follow our weekly projections and unit-based bankroll strategy for steady, data-driven profit through the season.
All odds current as of publication. Make sure you shop around at different sports books to get the best odds and line to maximize your return. Always wager responsibly.