David's NFL Week 11 Thursday Night Football Betting Picks & Predictions (with Units)

The GridironAI Betting Model has locked in its top value plays for Week 1 of the NFL season. Using advanced analytics, player performance trends, and line-movement data, these are David's best bets for this week.

David does the research and uses our models so you don't have to. Sunday picks will come out on Sunday morning.

Week 11 TNF Picks

The Primetime games in Week 10 were all awful, including two 10-7 games. Week 11 doesn't appear to want to start out any better, with the 8-2 Patriots hosting the 2-7 Jets as 13 points favorites, which has steamed up from 11.5. The Jets are coming off 2 consecutive wins, after starting the season 0-7. But as any Jets fan will tell you, they aren't allowed to have nice things. So that winning streak is going to come to a screeching halt tonight. The Patriots are massively outperforming their preseason expectations. Their preseason win total was 8.5, which they should eclipse that tonight. They had nice quality win over the Bucs last week, but their .376 Strength of Schedule is the easiest in the league, by a wide margin, and if the season were to end today, it would be the 11th lowest opponent win percentage by a team in the last 90 years. So yes, they are 8-2, but they've mostly beaten the Little Sisters of the Poor, but at least they tend to steam rolling those teams, which is what you would expect from a top-tier team, beating the Panthers by 29, the Browns and Titans by 19 and 18, respectively. But they only beat the Dolphins and Saints by 6, but those were both road game. On the other side of the ball, the Jets stink. They rank dead last in the NFL in passing, because Justin Fields should not be a starting QB in the NFL. Yes, they put up 39 points 2 weeks ago, but that was against the Bungals and their last ranked defense. Other than that they've score 13 offensive points vs. the Browns, 6 vs. the Panthers, 11 vs. the Broncos, and 22 vs. the Cowboys (2nd worst defense in the league). The Patriot have a top 10 defense. So I'm not expecting much from the Jets. Plus they are without #1 WR, Garrett Wilson. While the Jets used to be known for the defensive prowess, that is not the case with this team. They only teams they have held under 27 points are the Dillon Gabriel led Browns (20), the Bryce Young led Panthers (13), and a weird game against the Broncos (13). The Jets rank dead last in the NFL in takeaways with 1 in 9 games. The next worst team has 7. The GridironAI spread models has this at 52% towards the Patriots, but I like it more than that when I drive into the numbers. The GAI team scoring model has a project of 51 total points, which implies nice value on the Over 43. The Patriots should hang at least 30 points tonight. I just hope the Jets can contribute some points, 14 would be nice.

GridironAI Edge

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All odds current as of publication. Make sure you shop around at different sports books to get the best odds and line to maximize your return. Always wager responsibly.