David's NFL Week 11 Madrid Football Betting Picks & Predictions (with Units)
The GridironAI Betting Model has locked in its top value plays for Week 11 of the NFL season. Using advanced analytics, player performance trends, and line-movement data, these are David's best bets for this week.
David does the research and uses our models so you don't have to. Sunday picks will come out on Sunday morning.
Week 11 Madrid Pick
| Pick | Opponent | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins -2.5 | vs Washington Commanders | 8U |
Analysis
The GridironAI spread model has the Dolphins covering at 71%. This is a huge number. Over the past 1.5 season, when the GridironAI spread model has a probability over 70%, those picks are 22-13, not quite the 70% win rate, but winning at 63% is really solid. The Commanders are massively banged up. Marcus Mariotta is starting at QB for the injured Jayden Daniels. They are also missing 2 starting wide receivers, including #1 WR Terry McLaurin. Starting defensive lineman Daron Payne is suspended, and Dorance Armstrong is out. 3 starting defensive backs are also out; Marshon Lattimore, Will Harris, and Trey Amos. That's a lot of guys to be down, especially for a team that wasn't that good to begin with. On the other side of the ball, it's not the like Dolphins have been anything to write home about. Some games they play really well, beating the Bills by 17 last week, and the Falcons by 24 three weeks ago. But then they lose by 22 to the Ravens and 25 to the Browns. Hard to say which version of this Dolphins team is going to make the trip to Spain. The strength of the Commanders is their running game, because of their dual threat QB mixed with the running back. Mariotta can easily fill that role for Jayden Daniels, as he is also a very mobile QB, averaging 28 rushing yards per game in his 4 starts this season. Miami's run defense isn't great, bottom 10 in the league, but they have steadily been improving. 4 weeks ago they were ranked dead last in rush defense, and since then have held their 4 opponents to an average of 97 yards per game, which includes games against some of the best running backs in the league; Derrick Henry, and Bijan Robinson. The Commanders have a bottom 5 pass defensive, which should hopefully make life easier for Tua and his receivers. If Miami can contain the Commanders run game, and Tua does play like Hawk Tua and add to his league leading 13 interceptions, then Miami should easily win this game.
GridironAI Edge
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All odds current as of publication. Make sure you shop around at different sports books to get the best odds and line to maximize your return. Always wager responsibly.