NFL Week 11 Pick'Em

By Andy Troiano · November 13, 2019

About our Model

The current model is predicting the following information:

  • Probability of Team Winning
  • Home Team and Away Team Score

Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

  • The model does not know about significant roster changes that occur before the current game.
  • Backtested results (below) are the season to date numbers

Backtested Performance Results

The current backtest results are for the first two weeks of the season. This will also give you an idea of the performance if we were using this model all year.

  • Below is the percent correct for the year
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Correct </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> 0.69 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Below is a table that outlines how the model does with the individual predictions. This is useful if you want to use our predictions as a guide. Note- The current sample is small, so any broad conclusions you make need to be discounted.

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> predict </th> <th> Total Correct </th> <th> Total Pred </th> <th> Correct % </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> away\_team\_wins </td> <td> 39 </td> <td> 52 </td> <td> 0.75 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> home\_team\_wins </td> <td> 63 </td> <td> 95 </td> <td> 0.66 </td> </tr> </tbody> ### Game Projections <table> <thead> <tr> <th> Home Team </th> <th> Away Team Name </th> <th> Home Team Prob </th> <th> Pickem </th> <th> Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td> 0.49 </td> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Carolina Panthers </td> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td> 0.60 </td> <td> Carolina Panthers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td> 0.69 </td> <td> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Detroit Lions </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td> 0.37 </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Miami Dolphins </td> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> <td> 0.56 </td> <td> Miami Dolphins </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td> Denver Broncos </td> <td> 0.42 </td> <td> Denver Broncos </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td> Houston Texans </td> <td> 0.66 </td> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> <td> 0.36 </td> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Washington Redskins </td> <td> New York Jets </td> <td> 0.44 </td> <td> New York Jets </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td> 0.87 </td> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td> New England Patriots </td> <td> 0.28 </td> <td> New England Patriots </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> <td> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td> 0.85 </td> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td> Chicago Bears </td> <td> 0.59 </td> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> 0.27 </td> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Projected Game Scores

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Home Team Score </th> <th> Away Team Score </th> <th> Home Team </th> <th> Away Team </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> 28 </td> <td> 17 </td> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td> Houston Texans </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 24 </td> <td> 19 </td> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> <td> Cincinnati Bengals </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 18 </td> <td> 27 </td> <td> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 20 </td> <td> 25 </td> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td> New England Patriots </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 22 </td> <td> 25 </td> <td> Detroit Lions </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 21 </td> <td> 25 </td> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 28 </td> <td> 17 </td> <td> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 24 </td> <td> 21 </td> <td> Carolina Panthers </td> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 24 </td> <td> 21 </td> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td> Denver Broncos </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 18 </td> <td> 24 </td> <td> Miami Dolphins </td> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 26 </td> <td> 18 </td> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td> Chicago Bears </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 23 </td> <td> 20 </td> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 21 </td> <td> 19 </td> <td> Washington Redskins </td> <td> New York Jets </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 27 </td> <td> 18 </td> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td> Arizona Cardinals </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Questions/Feedback

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