Week 10 SNF Picks
| Pick | Opponent | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers +3 | vs LA Chargers | 6U |
| Pick | Line | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Steelers / Chargers Under 45.5 | Game Total | 2U |
Analysis
I understand why the line is 3, and it has been slowing drifting towards the Chargers. On paper, the Chargers have a much better offense than the Steelers, both passing and running. The Chargers also have a better defense, especially when looking at pass defense, where the Steelers rank dead last in yards per game. In some sense, it's hard to believe that the Steelers are 5-3 while boasting both a bottom 5 offense and defense. Now we have to look at some other key factors. First, turnover margin. The Steelers rank 2nd in TO margin at +9, while the Chargers are bottom 10 at -4. We saw last week the Chargers give up 14 points to the Titans defense and special teams. The other big factor, which I mentioned in my last Chargers analysis, is Joe Alt, pro-bowl offensive tackle for the Chargers. He suffered a season ending injury last week. He missed 4 games earlier this season, and in those games the Chargers went 1-3 against relatively weak opponents. The Steelers defense has been a Jekyll and Hyde team. Some games looking awful, and others, completely dominating teams like the Patriots and Colts. Without Alt, I think the Steelers will be able to impact the Chargers offense in a significant way. The GridironAI model likes the Steelers to cover at 65%, and has a scoring projections of 42 total points, which implies value on the Under 45.5
GridironAI Edge
Our AI model simulates each matchup 10,000+ times to uncover hidden value versus market odds.
Follow our weekly projections and unit-based bankroll strategy for steady, data-driven profit through the season.
All odds current as of publication. Make sure you shop around at different sports books to get the best odds and line to maximize your return. Always wager responsibly.