David's NFL Week 10 Monday Night Football Betting Picks & Predictions (with Units)

The GridironAI Betting Model has locked in its top value plays for Week 10 of the NFL season. Using advanced analytics, player performance trends, and line-movement data, these are David's best bets for this week.

David does the research and uses our models so you don't have to.

Week 10 MNF Picks

Game Analysis

The Packers are a tough team to figure out. They are sitting atop the NFC Norris Division, but have lost to the Browns and the Panthers. In both those games the defense played well and the offense sputtered. They've only beaten 1-2 playoff caliber teams, the Lions and Week 1 and the Steelers. They have the 6th easiest strenght of schedule so far. On the other hand, the Eagles have the 4th toughest schedule, and have beaten the Bucs, Rams, Chiefs, and lost to the Broncos. Looking at that, I can easily see why this game is a pick 'em with action moving towards the Eagles, even with the Packers being at home, where Lambeau Field will be the Frozen Tundra tonight. The Eagles appear to the be the better team on the surface, and they are the defending champs. But diving deeper into the numbers shows us some interesting tidbits. The Packers offense is Top 10, despite the 2 games where they laid an egg. The Eagles offense is bottom 10 in both the run and pass. Saquon Barkley just isn't breaking tackles like he used to (only 3 this season, compared to 19 last season), and his yards after contact is only 1.5 (compared to 2.0 last season). The tush push is under scrutinity for false start and offside violations. The Packers defense also ranks in the top 10, while the Eagles is bottom 10. So yes, the Packers have better stats, but is that just buoyed by the fact that the have played lower quality opponents? Or maybe they do a good job of getting up for big games, and then play down to their weaker opponents. Redzone efficiency will also play a huge factor. The Eagles are #1 in offensive red zone efficiency, scoring a TD 85% of the time they are in the redzone. Green Bay ranks in the Bottom 10 in defensive red zone efficiency. The Eagles defense ranks #2 in red zone efficiency. The Packers will be missing starting TE Tucker Kraft, which definitely hurts them. The Eagles will be missing starting Center Cam Jurgens, a key part of their outstanding offensive line. The Eagles also have the rest advanced coming off of their bye week. When we look at the GridironAI models for this game, they LOVE the Packers. The moneyline models have 64-69% probability of winnings, an enormous edge over the 52% implied odds based on the moneyline price (currently as low as -105). I'm going to have ride with the GAI Moneyline model, and make a big play on the Packers given the expected edge. The GridironAI Team Total model has a projected total score of 41, which implies value on the Under 45.5 as well.

GridironAI Edge

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All odds current as of publication. Make sure you shop around at different sports books to get the best odds and line to maximize your return. Always wager responsibly.