NFL Week 10 Pick'Em

By Andy Troiano · November 06, 2019

About our Model

The current model is predicting the following information:

  • Probability of Team Winning
  • Home Team and Away Team Score

Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

  • The model does not know about significant roster changes that occur before the current game.
  • Backtested results (below) are the season to date numbers

Backtested Performance Results

The current backtest results are for the first two weeks of the season. This will also give you an idea of the performance if we were using this model all year.

  • Below is the percent correct for the year
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Correct </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> 0.71 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Below is a table that outlines how the model does with the individual predictions. This is useful if you want to use our predictions as a guide. Note- The current sample is small so any broad conclusions you make need to be discounted. <table> <thead> <tr> <th> predict </th> <th> Total Correct </th> <th> Total Pred </th> <th> Correct % </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> away\_team\_wins </td> <td> 38 </td> <td> 49 </td> <td> 0.78 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> home\_team\_wins </td> <td> 57 </td> <td> 85 </td> <td> 0.67 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Projections

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Home Team </th> <th> Away Team Name </th> <th> Home Team Prob </th> <th> Pickem </th> <th> Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td> 0.71 </td> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Chicago Bears </td> <td> Detroit Lions </td> <td> 0.56 </td> <td> Chicago Bears </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td> 0.19 </td> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> <td> 0.61 </td> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> <td> Carolina Panthers </td> <td> 0.72 </td> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td> 0.78 </td> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> New York Jets </td> <td> New York Giants </td> <td> 0.56 </td> <td> New York Jets </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> 0.34 </td> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td> 0.63 </td> <td> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td> Miami Dolphins </td> <td> 0.84 </td> <td> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td> 0.53 </td> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td> 0.48 </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td> 0.58 </td> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Projected Game Scores

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Home Team Score </th> <th> Away Team Score </th> <th> Home Team </th> <th> Away Team </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> 22 </td> <td> 23 </td> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 27 </td> <td> 23 </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 25 </td> <td> 21 </td> <td> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td> Arizona Cardinals </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 29 </td> <td> 21 </td> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> <td> Carolina Panthers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 30 </td> <td> 24 </td> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 17 </td> <td> 28 </td> <td> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 17 </td> <td> 23 </td> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 29 </td> <td> 20 </td> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 27 </td> <td> 17 </td> <td> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td> Miami Dolphins </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 19 </td> <td> 24 </td> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 28 </td> <td> 21 </td> <td> Chicago Bears </td> <td> Detroit Lions </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 26 </td> <td> 20 </td> <td> New York Jets </td> <td> New York Giants </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 21 </td> <td> 25 </td> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Questions/Feedback

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