Week 2. Heat is on. In the effort of full transparency (we’ll track all year), last week we went 13/29 on the player props. That’s 44.8% and if I’m being honest, full self evaluation here…fairly impressed with the results coming into week 1 of the season. NON BIASED. Look props are tough bets and we’re not over here just picking like 5 of the best for the week, we are finding ONE bet per team per game. Noble cause by me (if I do say so myself). But I want something for everyone and if you root for a team or want to watch a game and bet a prop this is the place for you. Without further ado here we go…
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers | 1:00 PM EST
Jameis Winston Over 1.5 Touchdowns -110
Let’s keep the train rolling. Looking back on that Packers game, I don’t know how much you can take away as far as how good this Saints offense is but I’ll put my money on Jameis tossing 2.
Christian McCaffrey over 45.5 Receiving Yards -110
Not thinking Carolina is going to be pounding the ball in this one. Chance they are behind and GB had no rushing success last week (Aaron Jones had 9 yards on a measly 5 attempts). Joe Brady is still going to try to get his best player the ball and I think the best way to do that is throwing.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Chicago Bears | 1:00 PM EST
Allen Robinson over 70.5 receiving yards -115
Last this bet last week and only needed 64 receiving yards from Robinson so why would we go to this again? The Vikings had THREE receivers eclipse 70 receiving yards last week. Early results say that Cincy’s pass D sucks. Let’s bank on it.
Ja’Marr Chase over 4.5 receptions -105
Was 3.5 last week and we cashed as he caught 5 targets. We were correct and the Burrow bond has carried over from college.
Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns | 1:00 PM EST
Nick Chubb anytime TD -190
Simple calculation. The Browns will run all over this team, during the stomping Chubb will get into the end zone.
Philip Lindsay under 21.5 rushing yards
Our Michael Carter under rushing yards prop HIT last week. We got another looney one. I don’t see how Houston runs at all on this Cleveland D line. When they do run they will run mostly with Ingram. Lindsay only had 8 for 25 against the stinky Jags.
Los Angeles Rams @ Indianapolis Colts | 1:00 PM EST
Carson Wentz over 253.5 total yards -110
Wentz loves playing the Rams and 253.5 total yards is nothing here. He can hit this number in any type of game and I love it. For what it’s worth, Gridiron has this dude PASSING for over 350 yards this week, never mind the rushing stats.
Jefferson over 34.5 receiving yards -110
Huge increase in usage last week. Higher usage rate than Robert Woods. This number does not account for that. Also, he can exceed this on one play which is exactly what he did last week. Gridiron backs me up with a receiving yards total of 44.5 for Jefferson this week.
Denver Broncos @ Jacksonville Jaguars | 1:00 PM EST
James Robinson over 17.4 receiving yards -110
Just having a hard time believing they will marginalize last year’s best player two games in a row. Urban Meyer isn’t that stupid is he? I don’t think teams are gonna run very well against Denver this year but a talent like Robinson needs the ball and the Jags should try to utilize him with screens and short passes enough to get him over this small number.
Trevor Lawrence under 12.5 rushing yards -115
Last week we took the over here and he didn’t run at all. I saw enough and I think he’s probably a little scared to scramble around given the NFL speed. Gridiron has him at 11.5 rushing yards, close call but I think eye test + analytics make this a good bet.
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins | 1:00 PM EST
Singletary over 36.5 rushing yards -115
Damien Harris ran all over the Dolphins last week. I do think Buffalo wants to get Allen on track for the season but they couldn’t have overlooked how New England basically went up and down the field on the ground. Singletary even with limited usage should get over this number. Full transparency, Gridiron has this dude rushing for 11 yards but I don’t understand that prediction.
Waddle over 3.5 receptions -150
THEME ALERT. Young QBs with their ex-superstar college wide receivers. Dude is looking for Waddle and will throw to Waddle. Waddle will catch the ball and go over this total and maybe even during the first half.
New England Patriots @ New York Jets | 1:00 PM EST
Damien Harris anytime TD scorer +105
Let’s switch it up. We were 1/2 on our TD scorers last week. Tonyan and the Packers laid a big egg. This dude torched the Dolphins and wasn’t rewarded by getting in the end zone. That changes this week. New England will come with the same game management game plan of last week. Run the brakes off the Jets, use timely passing and blow them out. Should equal many TD opportunities for the former Alabama RB.
Zach Wilson over 0.5 int -170
Tossed one last week he’s tossing another this week.
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles | 1:00 PM EST
Devonta Smith over 3.5 receptions -215 (Like over 4.5)
See theme above. Vegas hasn’t corrected enough.
Bonus bet: Devonta Smith over 47.5 receiving yards -110
He’s the clear number 1 option. It’s going to add up to a big game against a banged up defense.
Deebo Samuel over 4.5 rushing yards -120
Last time these teams played Shanahan used misdirection to confuse the Eagles defense. Samuel was heavily involved in that. Yes I know it’s a different HC and DC in Philadelphia but a lot of the players are the same. This seems like an easy one.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Pittsburg Steelers | 1:00 PM EST
Ben Roethlisberger over 1.5 TD passes -180
I know Las Vegas’s defense looked ok last week but not buying it. Think Pittsburg passes all over them, everyone eats and Big Ben lights it up for 3 TDs. Gridiron is actually not backing m cup here. 1.5ish TDs is about what they have but they are taking into account stinky play from last week and maybe last year.
Darren Waller Over 6.5 Receptions -120
They just force the ball to this dude. Doesn’t really need to get any deeper than that on this one. Gridiron has him catching 8-9 balls and that seems pretty accurate to me.
Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals | 4:25 PM EST
Justin Jefferson over 71.5 receiving yards -115
We lost this best last week. Let’s not be too butt hurt about it. This guy is their number 1 wide out and a complete stud. FWIW Gridiron are crazy people and have him ending at 58 yards. This is WHACK. He had 71 yards last week and I thought left a lot out there.
Kyler Murray under 277.5 passing yards -115
THEMES. Lost this bet last week. What changed? How about the insane INCREASE in passing yards this week? Why did it increase? I have no idea because last week Minny gave up 217 passing yards to Burrow and I still have the same thoughts about Kyler as I did coming into last game.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4:25 PM EST
Matt Ryan over 0.5 INT -160
Somehow he didn’t throw one last week. There is a law of averages however and TBs defense + Ryan’s penchant for overdoing it when the going gets tough = profit.
Leonard Fournette over 34.5 rushing yards -120
Huge Eagles fan here. I watched every second of the game last week. The Atlanta defense is complete trash, after one game it’s already at demoralizing levels. The Eagles could have run or passed on this team all day, they chose to do a lot of both but I think Arians is gonna give Brady a break after a tough one last week and lean on Lenny.
Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Chargers | 4:25 PM EST
Austin Ekeler over 53.5 rushing yards -110
I hate this game. Did not like anything I was looking at for props but here is my best try. This dude is a complete stud. The Dallas defense doesn’t look like it can stop anything. Tampa’s RBs both are kinda meh and the running attack last week didn’t do anything. Think it’s suppressing Ekeler’s total here and there is value.
CeeDee Lamb over 75.5 receiving yards -115
Gallup hurt so who else are they gonna throw to right? Guy looked unstoppable last week unless he was dropping the ball, but should get enough targets this week to win us cash.
Tennessee Titans @ Seattle Seahawks | 4:25 PM EST
Derrick Henry anytime TD scorer -140
This is a big time don’t overthink it TD prop. Little bit of a gut situation here but dude is gonna get in the end zone. Gridiron also backs me up with a pretty high TD probability for Henry to match my gut.
Tyler Lockett over 68.5 receiving yards -115
Not reinventing the wheel. This guy is amazing and constantly overlooked. Tennessee’s defense stiiiiiinks and this guy will benefit.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens | 4:25 PM EST
Lamar Jackson under 68.5 rushing yards -120
Seems like a high number. I know they will probably be in a lot of passing situations bringing the scramble into play but I don’t think Baltimore accomplishes its goals in this one with the Lamar show. Going to have to be a balanced attack and I actually think Lamar hangs in there and tries to get the ball down the field off of some play action.
Mark Andrews Anytime TD Scorer +130
In the mood to pick some TD scorers this week and this one seems pretty straightforward. Baltimore might be behind, it’s likely in fact. They are going to throw it. Andrews is Lamar’s favorite target and I like his chances to get in the end zone.
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers | 8:15 PM EST, Sept 13
TJ Hockenson Anytime TD +220
Love this one. All gut so if you don’t have the stomach please pass but if you do want to play get it as early as possible to maximize your payout.
Davante Adams Anytime TD -150
That was a s#$% show last week. GB is going to get back on track and the biggest part of the GB offense not named Rodgers is gonna EAT.
Alright team, let’s do this. Good luck to everyone this week and please I welcome feedback. Hit up the Slack channel or follow me on Twitter @jamestroiano. As always, anything else that catches my eye pre-games will be shared there.