NFL Spread Picks - Week 9 2021

By Andy Troiano · November 04, 2021

This post covers the probabilities of who will cover the spread in a game. We do not provide commentary on the picks, we provide the outputs directly from our models. There are plenty of other resources you can use to help guide your picks in conjunction with the data we provide.

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Current Limitations

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  • The model does not know about significant roster changes that occur before the recent game.
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> week </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> pct\_correct </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> model\_id </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.31 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V1 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.81 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.81 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.64 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.46 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Spread Predictions

  • HomeTeam - The Home Team for the game
  • AwayTeam - The Away Team for the game
  • Line - The line used for the generation of the probabilities
  • BinScore - The bin of the probability
  • HomeTeamCoverProb- The probability the home team covers the spread
  • AwayTeamCoverProb - The probability the away team covers the spread
  • Time - Game Time
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Line </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> BinScore </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Bet </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> HomeTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> AwayTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Time </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -10.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.33 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.67 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-04 20:20:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -2.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-07 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -9.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.51 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.49 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-07 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -6.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.66 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.34 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-07 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.85 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.15 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-07 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -6.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.63 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.37 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-07 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Carolina Panthers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.44 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-07 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.49 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.51 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-07 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -6.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-07 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-07 16:05:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -7.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.51 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.49 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-07 16:25:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.82 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.18 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-07 16:25:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -7.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.72 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.28 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-07 20:20:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -6.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.49 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.51 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-08 20:15:00 EST </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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