NFL Spread Picks - Week 8 2021

By Andy Troiano · October 28, 2021

This post covers the probabilities of who will cover the spread in a game. We do not provide commentary on the picks, we provide the outputs directly from our models. There are plenty of other resources you can use to help guide your picks in conjunction with the data we provide.

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Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

  • The model does not know about significant roster changes that occur before the recent game.
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> week </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> pct\_correct </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> model\_id </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.31 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V1 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.81 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.81 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.64 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.46 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Spread Predictions

  • HomeTeam - The Home Team for the game
  • AwayTeam - The Away Team for the game
  • Line - The line used for the generation of the probabilities
  • BinScore - The bin of the probability
  • HomeTeamCoverProb- The probability the home team covers the spread
  • AwayTeamCoverProb - The probability the away team covers the spread
  • Time - Game Time
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Line </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> BinScore </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Bet </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> HomeTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> AwayTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Time </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> NA </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.32 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.68 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-28 20:20:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> NA </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.67 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.33 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-31 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> NA </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.76 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.24 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-31 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Carolina Panthers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> NA </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Carolina Panthers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-31 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> NA </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.42 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.58 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-31 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> NA </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.31 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.69 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-31 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> NA </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.40 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-31 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> NA </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.42 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.58 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-31 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> NA </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.46 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.54 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-31 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> NA </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.35 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.65 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-31 16:05:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.38 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.62 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-31 16:05:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> NA </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.65 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.35 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-31 16:25:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> NA </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.34 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.66 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-31 16:25:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> NA </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.58 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.42 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-31 20:20:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> NA </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.29 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.71 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-01 20:15:00 EDT </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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