Probability of Covering the Spread

This post is going to be a weekly re-occurring post where we will provide AI-generated spread picks. The analysis will be light. These are coming from an experimental model.

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Spread Picks for Week 8 2020

Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

The model does not know about significant roster changes that occur before the recent game.

Backtested Performance Week 6 to 21 From 2019

I deep dived into the backtesting here, I highly recommend you read this

YTD Performance

Below you’ll see some performance measures for the model YTD.

The week one post was using the V1 model
The week two probabilities are using our V2 model
V2 was rerun on week 1 predictions, and the results are posted below

<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> week </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> pct\_correct </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> model\_id </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V1 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 11 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.73 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.53 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.71 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Weekly and YTD Performance of Model V2 Without the .5 and .6 Buckets

Below you’ll see some performance measures for the current version of the model when excluding the .5 and .6 buckets.

In our backtesting, the performance of all buckets except for .5 and .6 was ~60%
That is the population with the highest win rate
We Are not a betting site. All recommendations are purely our opinion; please do your own research.

<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> Week </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> PctCorrect </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> ModelID </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 12 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.58 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.77 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 11 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.64 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.00 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Below is the YTD performance of the V2 Model without the .5 and .6 buckets

<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> Games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> PctCorrect </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> ModelID </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 57 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 35 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.61 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Spread Predictions For Week 8 2020

HomeTeam - The Home Team for the game
AwayTeam - The Away Team for the game
Line - The line used for the generation of the probabilities
BinScore - The bin of the probability
HomeTeamCoverProb- The probability the home team covers the spread
AwayTeamCoverProb - The probability the away team covers the spread
Time - Game Time

<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Line </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> BinScore </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Bet </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> HomeTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> AwayTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Time </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Carolina Panthers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -2.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Carolina Panthers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.53 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.47 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-29 20:20:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -7.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.83 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.17 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-01 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> NA </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.54 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.46 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-01 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.58 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.42 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-01 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -0.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.36 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.64 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-01 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.37 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.63 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-01 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -2.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.24 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.76 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-01 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.26 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.74 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-01 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -19.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.44 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-01 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.68 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.32 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-01 16:05:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> NA </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.55 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.45 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-01 16:25:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.46 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.54 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-01 16:25:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.40 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-01 20:20:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.37 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.63 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-02 20:15:00 EST </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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NFL Spread Picks - Week 8 2020