NFL Spread Picks - Week 7 2021

By Andy Troiano · October 21, 2021

This post covers the probabilities of who will cover the spread in a game. We do not provide commentary on the picks, we provide the outputs directly from our models. There are plenty of other resources you can use to help guide your picks in conjunction with the data we provide.

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<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> week </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> pct\_correct </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> model\_id </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.31 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V1 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.81 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.81 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Spread Predictions

  • HomeTeam - The Home Team for the game
  • AwayTeam - The Away Team for the game
  • Line - The line used for the generation of the probabilities
  • BinScore - The bin of the probability
  • HomeTeamCoverProb- The probability the home team covers the spread
  • AwayTeamCoverProb - The probability the away team covers the spread
  • Time - Game Time
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Line </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> BinScore </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Bet </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> HomeTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> AwayTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Time </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.54 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.46 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-21 20:20:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.71 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.29 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-24 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Carolina Panthers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.59 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.41 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-24 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -6.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.72 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.28 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-24 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -9.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.49 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.51 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-24 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -7.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.41 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.59 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-24 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.40 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-24 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.53 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.47 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-24 16:05:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -15.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.33 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.67 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-24 16:05:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -17.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.69 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.31 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-24 16:25:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -13.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.65 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.35 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-24 16:25:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.53 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.47 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-24 20:20:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.73 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.27 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-25 20:15:00 EDT </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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