NFL Spread Picks - Week 7 2020

By Andy Troiano · October 22, 2020

This post is going to be a weekly re-occurring post where we will provide AI-generated spread picks. The analysis will be light. These are coming from an experimental model.

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Spread Picks for Week 6 2020

Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

  • The model does not know about significant roster changes that occur before the recent game.
Backtested Performance Week 6 to 21 From 2019

I deep dived into the backtesting here, I highly recommend you read this

YTD Performance

Below you’ll see some performance measures for the model YTD.

  • The week one post was using the V1 model
  • The week two probabilities are using our V2 model
  • V2 was rerun on week 1 predictions, and the results are posted below
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> week </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> pct\_correct </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> model\_id </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V1 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 11 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.73 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
Weekly and YTD Performance of Model V2 Without the .5 and .6 Buckets

Below you’ll see some performance measures for the current version of the model when excluding the .5 and .6 buckets.

  • In our backtesting, the performance of all buckets except for .5 and .6 was ~60%
  • That is the population with the highest win rate
  • We Are not a betting site. All recommendations are purely our opinion; please do your own research.
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> Week </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> PctCorrect </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> ModelID </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 12 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.58 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.77 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 11 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.64 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Below is the YTD performance of the V2 Model without the .5 and .6 buckets

<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> Games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> PctCorrect </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> ModelID </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 56 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 35 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.62 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Spread Predictions For Week 7 2020

Here are our week seven predictions!

  • HomeTeam - The Home Team for the game
  • AwayTeam - The Away Team for the game
  • Line - The line used for the generation of the probabilities
  • BinScore - The bin of the probability
  • HomeTeamCoverProb- The probability the home team covers the spread
  • AwayTeamCoverProb - The probability the away team covers the spread
  • Time - Game Time
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Line </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> BinScore </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Bet </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> HomeTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> AwayTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Time </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -4.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.32 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.68 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-22 20:20:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Carolina Panthers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -7.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.51 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.49 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-25 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.54 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.46 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-25 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.66 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.34 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-25 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -2.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.42 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.58 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-25 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.18 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.82 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-25 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.46 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.54 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-25 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -1.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.31 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.69 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-25 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.54 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.46 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-25 16:05:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -8.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.62 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.38 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-25 16:25:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.48 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.52 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-25 16:25:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -2.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.35 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.65 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-25 16:25:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.64 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.36 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-25 20:20:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -6.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.36 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.64 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-26 20:15:00 EDT </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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