NFL Spread Picks - Week 6 2021

By Andy Troiano · October 14, 2021

This post covers the probabilities of who will cover the spread in a game. We do not provide commentary on the picks, we provide the outputs directly from our models. There are plenty of other resources you can use to help guide your picks in conjunction with the data we provide.

HouseKeeping!

Subscription To Our Site

If you like this content and also play fantasy football, our site provides weekly game projections.

We provide weekly projections and stats for $5 a month during the regular season. When the season is over, we do not bill.

With the MVP subscription:

  • You can customize scoring
  • Save players to your roster
  • Download all the predictions into a CSV file
  • Download raw player data to do your analysis/modeling

You can make a free account to get a preview!

Register Here

We also have a How-To article you can review to give you a taste of what is available.

Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

  • The model does not know about significant roster changes that occur before the recent game.
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> week </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> pct\_correct </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> model\_id </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.31 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V1 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.81 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.81 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Spread Predictions

  • HomeTeam - The Home Team for the game
  • AwayTeam - The Away Team for the game
  • Line - The line used for the generation of the probabilities
  • BinScore - The bin of the probability
  • HomeTeamCoverProb- The probability the home team covers the spread
  • AwayTeamCoverProb - The probability the away team covers the spread
  • Time - Game Time
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Line </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> BinScore </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Bet </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> HomeTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> AwayTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Time </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.62 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.38 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-14 20:20:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.67 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.33 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-17 09:30:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Carolina Panthers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Carolina Panthers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.59 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.41 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-17 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.62 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.38 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-17 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.67 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.33 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-17 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.61 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.39 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-17 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -9.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.47 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.53 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-17 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.42 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.58 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-17 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.49 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.51 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-17 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.33 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.67 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-17 16:05:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.55 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.45 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-17 16:25:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.28 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.72 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-17 16:25:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -5.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-17 20:20:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.44 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-18 20:15:00 EDT </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Questions/Feedback

If anyone has any questions or wants to talk to us, you can find us on our Slack Channel. Click here to join: we love to talk!.