NFL Spread Picks - Week 6 2020

By Andy Troiano · October 16, 2020

This post is going to be a weekly re-occurring post where we will provide AI-generated spread picks. The analysis will be light. These are coming from an experimental model.

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Spread Picks for Week 6 2020

Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

  • The model does not know about significant roster changes that occur before the recent game.
Backtested Performance Week 6 to 21 From 2019

I deep dived into the backtesting here, I highly recommend you read this

YTD Performance

Below youâ??ll see some performance measures for the model YTD.

  • The week one post was using the V1 model
  • The week two probabilities are using our V2 model
  • V2 was rerun on week 1 predictions, and the results are posted below
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> week </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> pct\_correct </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> model\_id </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V1 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 11 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.73 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
Weekly and YTD Performance of Model V2 Without the .5 and .6 Buckets

Below youâ??ll see some performance measures for the current version of the model when excluding the .5 and .6 buckets.

  • In our backtesting, the performance of all buckets except for .5 and .6 was ~60%
  • That is the population with the highest win rate
  • We Are not a betting site. All recommendations are purely our opinion; please do your own research.
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> Week </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> PctCorrect </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> ModelID </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 12 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.58 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.77 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 11 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.64 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Below is the YTD performance of the V2 Model without the .5 and .6 buckets

<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> Games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> PctCorrect </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> ModelID </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 50 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 32 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.64 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Spread Predictions For Week 6 2020

Here are our week six predictions!

  • HomeTeam - The Home Team for the game
  • AwayTeam - The Away Team for the game
  • Line - The line used for the generation of the probabilities
  • BinScore - The bin of the probability
  • HomeTeamCoverProb- The probability the home team covers the spread
  • AwayTeamCoverProb - The probability the away team covers the spread
  • Time - Game Time
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Line </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> BinScore </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Bet </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> HomeTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> AwayTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Time </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.72 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.28 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-18 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.51 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.49 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-18 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Carolina Panthers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -2.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.19 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.81 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-18 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -8.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.25 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.75 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-18 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.20 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.80 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-18 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -2.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.47 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.53 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-18 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> NA </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.39 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.61 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-18 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-18 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> NA </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.32 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.68 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-18 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -9.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.30 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.70 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-18 16:05:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-18 16:25:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.30 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.70 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-18 20:20:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> NA </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.59 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.41 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-19 17:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.51 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.49 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-19 20:15:00 EDT </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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