NFL Spread Picks - Week 5 2021

By Andy Troiano · October 07, 2021

This post covers the probabilities of who will cover the spread in a game. We do not provide commentary on the picks, we provide the outputs directly from our models. There are plenty of other resources you can use to help guide your picks in conjunction with the data we provide.

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Current Limitations

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  • The model does not know about significant roster changes that occur before the recent game.
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> week </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> pct\_correct </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> model\_id </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.31 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V1 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.81 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.81 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Spread Predictions

  • HomeTeam - The Home Team for the game
  • AwayTeam - The Away Team for the game
  • Line - The line used for the generation of the probabilities
  • BinScore - The bin of the probability
  • HomeTeamCoverProb- The probability the home team covers the spread
  • AwayTeamCoverProb - The probability the away team covers the spread
  • Time - Game Time
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Line </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> BinScore </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Bet </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> HomeTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> AwayTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Time </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.36 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.64 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-07 20:20:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.75 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.25 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-10 09:30:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.53 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.47 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-10 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.61 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.39 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-10 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Carolina Panthers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.40 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-10 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.35 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.65 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-10 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.48 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.52 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-10 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -7.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.41 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.59 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-10 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -1.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.44 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-10 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -10.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.48 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.52 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-10 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -1.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.44 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-10 16:05:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -5.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-10 16:05:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -5.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.54 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.46 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-10 16:25:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -7.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.86 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.14 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-10 16:25:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.40 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-10 20:20:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -7.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.69 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.31 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-11 20:15:00 EDT </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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