NFL Spread Picks - Week 5 2020

By Andy Troiano · October 07, 2020

This post is going to be a weekly re-occurring post where we will provide AI-generated spread picks. The analysis will be light. These are coming from an experimental model.

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Spread Picks for Week 5 2020

Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

  • The model does not know about significant roster changes that occur before the recent game.
Backtested Performance Week 6 to 21 From 2019

I deep dived into the backtesting here, I highly recommend you read this

YTD Performance

Below you’ll see some performance measures for the model YTD.

  • The week one post was using the V1 model
  • The week two probabilities are using our V2 model
  • V2 was rerun on week 1 predictions, and the results are posted below
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> week </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> pct\_correct </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> model\_id </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V1 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 11 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.69 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
Weekly and YTD Performance of Model V2 Without the .5 and .6 Buckets

Below you’ll see some performance measures for the current version of the model when excluding the .5 and .6 buckets.

  • In our backtesting, the performance of all buckets except for .5 and .6 was ~60%
  • That is the population with the highest win rate
  • We Are not a betting site. All recommendations are purely our opinion; please do your own research.
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> Week </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> PctCorrect </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> ModelID </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.54 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 12 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.58 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.77 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Below is the YTD performance of the V2 Model without the .5 and .6 buckets

<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> Games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> PctCorrect </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> ModelID </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 45 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 28 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.62 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Spread Predictions For Week 5 2020

Here are our week four predictions for your reading pleasure!

  • HomeTeam - The Home Team for the game
  • AwayTeam - The Away Team for the game
  • Line - The line used for the generation of the probabilities
  • BinScore - The bin of the probability
  • HomeTeamCoverProb- The probability the home team covers the spread
  • AwayTeamCoverProb - The probability the away team covers the spread
  • Time - Game Time
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Line </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> BinScore </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Bet </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> HomeTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> AwayTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Time </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.84 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.16 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-08 20:20:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.69 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.31 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-11 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> NA </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.87 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.13 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-11 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Carolina Panthers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -1.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Carolina Panthers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.85 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-11 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -6.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .9 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.06 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.94 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-11 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -13.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.27 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.73 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-11 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> NA </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .9 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.90 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-11 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -7.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .3 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.40 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-11 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -12.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.42 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.58 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-11 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.18 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.82 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-11 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -9.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.69 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.31 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-11 16:05:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .9 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.05 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.95 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-11 16:25:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -9.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.90 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-11 16:25:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -7.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.40 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-11 20:20:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -7.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.29 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.71 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-10-12 20:15:00 EDT </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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