NFL Spread Picks - Week 4 2021

By Andy Troiano · September 30, 2021

This post covers the probabilities of who will cover the spread in a game. We do not provide commentary on the picks, we provide the outputs directly from our models. There are plenty of other resources you can use to help guide your picks in conjunction with the data we provide.

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<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> week </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> pct\_correct </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> model\_id </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.31 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V1 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.81 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Spread Predictions

  • HomeTeam - The Home Team for the game
  • AwayTeam - The Away Team for the game
  • Line - The line used for the generation of the probabilities
  • BinScore - The bin of the probability
  • HomeTeamCoverProb- The probability the home team covers the spread
  • AwayTeamCoverProb - The probability the away team covers the spread
  • Time - Game Time
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Line </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> BinScore </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Bet </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> HomeTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> AwayTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Time </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -7.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.21 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.79 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-30 20:20:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -16.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.66 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.34 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-03 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Carolina Panthers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -4.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.61 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.39 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-03 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.74 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.26 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-03 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.63 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.37 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-03 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.41 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.59 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-03 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.48 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.52 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-03 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -2.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.37 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.63 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-03 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -8.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.41 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.59 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-03 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.40 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-03 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -4.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.49 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.51 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-03 16:05:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.35 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.65 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-03 16:05:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -1.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.59 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.41 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-03 16:25:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -6.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.44 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-03 16:25:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.70 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.30 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-03 20:20:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.63 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.37 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-10-04 20:15:00 EDT </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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