NFL Spread Picks - Week 3 2020

By Andy Troiano · September 24, 2020

This post is going to be a weekly re-occurring post where we will provide AI-generated spread picks. The analysis will be light. These are coming from an experimental model.

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Spread Picks for Week 2 2020

Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

  • The model does not know about significant roster changes that occur before the recent game.
Backtested Performance Week 6 to 21 From 2019

I deep dived into the backtesting here, I highly recommend you read this

YTD Performance

Below you’ll see some performance measures for the model YTD.

  • The week one post was using the V1 model
  • The week two probabilities are using our V2 model
  • V2 was rerun on week 1 predictions, and the results are posted below
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> week </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> pct\_correct </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> model\_id </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V1 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
Weekly and YTD Performance of Model V2 Without the .5 and .6 Buckets

Below you’ll see some performance measures for the current version of the model when excluding the .5 and .6 buckets.

  • In our backtesting, the performance of all buckets except for .5 and .6 was ~60%
  • That is the population with the highest win rate
  • We Are not a betting site. All recommendations are purely our opinion; please do your own research.
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> Week </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> PctCorrect </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> ModelID </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Below is the YTD performance of the V2 Model without the .5 and .6 buckets

<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> Games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> PctCorrect </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> ModelID </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 21 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 12 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Spread Predictions For Week 3 2020

Here are our week three predictions for your reading pleasure!

  • HomeTeam - The Home Team for the game
  • AwayTeam - The Away Team for the game
  • Line - The line used for the generation of the probabilities
  • BinScore - The bin of the probability
  • HomeTeamCoverProb- The probability the home team covers the spread
  • AwayTeamCoverProb - The probability the away team covers the spread
  • Time - Game Time
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Line </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> BinScore </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Bet </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> HomeTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> AwayTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Time </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .4 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.52 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.48 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-09-24 20:20:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -2.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.85 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.15 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-09-27 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.44 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-09-27 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -7.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.27 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.73 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-09-27 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.28 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.72 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-09-27 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -5.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.11 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.89 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-09-27 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.28 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.72 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-09-27 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -4.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .4 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.55 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.45 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-09-27 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -4.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.33 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.67 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-09-27 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -11.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .9 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.04 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.96 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-09-27 16:05:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Carolina Panthers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -6.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Carolina Panthers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.11 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.89 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-09-27 16:05:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -5.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .3 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.66 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.34 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-09-27 16:25:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.21 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.79 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-09-27 16:25:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -5.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-09-27 16:25:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.85 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.15 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-09-27 20:20:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.41 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.59 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-09-28 20:15:00 EDT </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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