NFL Spread Picks - Week 2 2021

By Andy Troiano · September 16, 2021

This post covers the probabilities of who will cover the spread in a game. We do not provide commentary on the picks, we provide the outputs directly from our models. There are plenty of other resources you can use to help guide your picks in conjunction with the data we provide.

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Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

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Game Spread Predictions

  • HomeTeam - The Home Team for the game
  • AwayTeam - The Away Team for the game
  • Line - The line used for the generation of the probabilities
  • BinScore - The bin of the probability
  • HomeTeamCoverProb- The probability the home team covers the spread
  • AwayTeamCoverProb - The probability the away team covers the spread
  • Time - Game Time
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Line </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> BinScore </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Bet </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> HomeTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> AwayTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Time </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.25 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.75 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-16 20:20:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.51 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.49 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-19 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Carolina Panthers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.18 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.82 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-19 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.35 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.65 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-19 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -12.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.26 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.74 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-19 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.17 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.83 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-19 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.85 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-19 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.22 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.78 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-19 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.48 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.52 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-19 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -5.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.84 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-19 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -4.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .4 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-19 16:05:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -12.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.53 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.47 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-19 16:05:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.25 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.75 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-19 16:25:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -5.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.36 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.64 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-19 16:25:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.26 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.74 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-19 20:20:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -10.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.44 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-20 20:15:00 EDT </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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