NFL Spread Picks - Week 1 2021

By Andy Troiano · September 09, 2021

This post covers the probabilities of who will cover the spread in a game. We do not provide commentary on the picks; we provide the outputs directly from our models. There are plenty of other resources you can use to help guide your picks in conjunction with the data we provide.

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<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> week </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> pct\_correct </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> model\_id </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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Game Spread Predictions For Week 1 2021

  • HomeTeam - The Home Team for the game
  • AwayTeam - The Away Team for the game
  • Line - The line used for the generation of the probabilities
  • BinScore - The bin of the probability
  • HomeTeamCoverProb- The probability the home team covers the spread
  • AwayTeamCoverProb - The probability the away team covers the spread
  • Time - Game Time
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Line </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> BinScore </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Bet </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> HomeTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> AwayTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Time </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -7.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.38 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.62 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-09 20:20:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.40 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-12 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -6.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.51 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.49 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-12 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-12 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.52 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.48 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-12 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Carolina Panthers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -5.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.36 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.64 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-12 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.33 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.67 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-12 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.49 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.51 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-12 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.41 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.59 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-12 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.39 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.61 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-12 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.51 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.49 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-12 16:25:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -6.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.40 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-12 16:25:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.49 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.51 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-12 16:25:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.38 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.62 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-12 16:25:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -7.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.59 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.41 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-12 20:20:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.44 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-13 20:15:00 EDT </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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