NFL Spread Picks - Week 19 2021

By Andy Troiano · January 13, 2022

This post covers the probabilities of who will cover the spread in a game. We do not provide commentary on the picks, we provide the outputs directly from our models. There are plenty of other resources you can use to help guide your picks in conjunction with the data we provide.

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<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> week </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> pct\_correct </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> model\_id </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.31 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V1 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.81 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.81 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.64 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.54 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.21 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 11 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 12 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.31 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.44 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 17 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.38 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 18 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 11 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.69 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Spread Predictions

  • HomeTeam - The Home Team for the game
  • AwayTeam - The Away Team for the game
  • Line - The line used for the generation of the probabilities
  • BinScore - The bin of the probability
  • HomeTeamCoverProb- The probability the home team covers the spread
  • AwayTeamCoverProb - The probability the away team covers the spread
  • Time - Game Time
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Line </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> BinScore </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Bet </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> HomeTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> AwayTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Time </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -5.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.61 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.39 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2022-01-15 16:30:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -4.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.54 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.46 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2022-01-15 20:15:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -8.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.33 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.67 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2022-01-16 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2022-01-16 16:40:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -12.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.35 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.65 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2022-01-16 20:15:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.51 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.49 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2022-01-17 20:15:00 EST </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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