NFL Spread Picks - Week 18 2020

By Andy Troiano · January 08, 2021

This post is going to be a weekly re-occurring post where we will provide AI-generated spread picks. The analysis will be light. These are coming from an experimental model.

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Backtested Performance Week 6 to 21 From 2019

I deep dived into the backtesting here, I highly recommend you read this

YTD Performance

Below you’ll see some performance measures for the model YTD.

  • The week one post was using the V1 model
  • The week two probabilities are using our V2 model
  • V2 was rerun on week 1 predictions, and the results are posted below
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> week </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> pct\_correct </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> model\_id </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V1 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 11 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.73 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.71 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.64 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 11 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 12 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.53 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 30 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 19 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.63 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 17 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.31 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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Game Spread Predictions For Week 18 2020

  • HomeTeam - The Home Team for the game
  • AwayTeam - The Away Team for the game
  • Line - The line used for the generation of the probabilities
  • BinScore - The bin of the probability
  • HomeTeamCoverProb- The probability the home team covers the spread
  • AwayTeamCoverProb - The probability the away team covers the spread
  • Time - Game Time
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Line </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> BinScore </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Bet </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> HomeTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> AwayTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Time </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -6.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.36 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.64 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-01-09 13:05:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.86 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-01-09 16:40:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.84 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.16 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-01-09 20:15:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.36 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.64 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-01-10 13:05:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -9.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.79 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.21 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-01-10 16:40:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -6.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.27 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.73 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-01-10 20:15:00 EST </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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