NFL Spread Picks - Week 17 2021

By Andy Troiano · December 29, 2021

This post covers the probabilities of who will cover the spread in a game. We do not provide commentary on the picks, we provide the outputs directly from our models. There are plenty of other resources you can use to help guide your picks in conjunction with the data we provide.

HouseKeeping!

Subscription To Our Site

If you like this content and also play fantasy football, our site provides weekly game projections.

We provide weekly projections and stats for $5 a month during the regular season. When the season is over, we do not bill.

With the MVP subscription:

  • You can customize scoring
  • Save players to your roster
  • Download all the predictions into a CSV file
  • Download raw player data to do your analysis/modeling

You can make a free account to get a preview!

Register Here

We also have a How-To article you can review to give you a taste of what is available.

Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

  • The model does not know about significant roster changes that occur before the recent game.
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> week </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> pct\_correct </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> model\_id </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.31 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V1 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.81 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.81 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.64 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.54 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.21 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 11 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 12 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.31 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.44 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Spread Predictions

  • HomeTeam - The Home Team for the game
  • AwayTeam - The Away Team for the game
  • Line - The line used for the generation of the probabilities
  • BinScore - The bin of the probability
  • HomeTeamCoverProb- The probability the home team covers the spread
  • AwayTeamCoverProb - The probability the away team covers the spread
  • Time - Game Time
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Line </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> BinScore </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Bet </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> HomeTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> AwayTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Time </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -14.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.54 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.46 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2022-01-02 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.63 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.37 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2022-01-02 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -6.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.47 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.53 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2022-01-02 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.37 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.63 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2022-01-02 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -7.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.47 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.53 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2022-01-02 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -5.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.39 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.61 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2022-01-02 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Carolina Panthers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -6.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Carolina Panthers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.47 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.53 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2022-01-02 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -15.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2022-01-02 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.48 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.52 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2022-01-02 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.48 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.52 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2022-01-02 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -5.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.39 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.61 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2022-01-02 16:05:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -13.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.32 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.68 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2022-01-02 16:05:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -7.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.40 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2022-01-02 16:25:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.45 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.55 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2022-01-02 16:25:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -6.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.53 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.47 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2022-01-02 20:20:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.44 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2022-01-03 20:15:00 EST </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Questions/Feedback

If anyone has any questions or wants to talk to us, you can find us on our Slack Channel. Click here to join: we love to talk!.