This post is going to be a weekly re-occurring post where we will
provide AI-generated spread picks. The analysis will be light. These are
coming from an experimental model.
#### HouseKeeping!
##### Subscription To Our Site
If you like this content and also play fantasy football, our site
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We provide weekly projections and stats for $5 a month during the
regular season. When the season is over, we do not bill.
With the MVP subscription:
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[We also have a How-To article you can review to give you a taste of
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##### Current Limitations
Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:
- The model does not know about significant roster changes that occur
before the recent game.
##### Backtested Performance Week 6 to 21 From 2019
[**I deep dived into the backtesting here, I highly recommend you read
this**](https://gridironai.com/football/blog/article/nfl_spread_prediction_backtest/81)
##### YTD Performance
Below you’ll see some performance measures for the model YTD.
- The week one post was using the V1 model
- The week two probabilities are using our V2 model
- V2 was rerun on week 1 predictions, and the results are posted below
week
games
correct
pct\_correct
model\_id
1
16
8
0.50
V1
2
16
8
0.50
V2
3
16
9
0.56
V2
4
15
11
0.73
V2
5
14
8
0.57
V2
6
14
6
0.43
V2
7
14
10
0.71
V2
8
14
6
0.43
V2
9
14
7
0.50
V2
10
14
9
0.64
V2
11
14
6
0.43
V2
12
16
9
0.56
V2
13
15
8
0.53
V2
15
30
19
0.63
V2
16
16
9
0.56
V2
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### Game Spread Predictions For Week 17 2020
- HomeTeam - The Home Team for the game
- AwayTeam - The Away Team for the game
- Line - The line used for the generation of the probabilities
- BinScore - The bin of the probability
- HomeTeamCoverProb- The probability the home team covers the spread
- AwayTeamCoverProb - The probability the away team covers the spread
- Time - Game Time
HomeTeam
AwayTeam
Line
BinScore
Bet
HomeTeamCoverProb
AwayTeamCoverProb
Time
Cincinnati Bengals
Baltimore Ravens
11.5
.5
Cincinnati Bengals
0.58
0.42
2021-01-03 13:00:00 EST
Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins
NA
.5
Miami Dolphins
0.43
0.57
2021-01-03 13:00:00 EST
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers
NA
.5
Pittsburgh Steelers
0.46
0.54
2021-01-03 13:00:00 EST
Detroit Lions
Minnesota Vikings
NA
.8
Minnesota Vikings
0.15
0.85
2021-01-03 13:00:00 EST
New England Patriots
New York Jets
NA
.5
New York Jets
0.48
0.52
2021-01-03 13:00:00 EST
New York Giants
Dallas Cowboys
2.5
.9
Dallas Cowboys
0.02
0.98
2021-01-03 13:00:00 EST
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons
-6.0
.6
Atlanta Falcons
0.38
0.62
2021-01-03 13:00:00 EST
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
-14.0
.7
Indianapolis Colts
0.74
0.26
2021-01-03 16:25:00 EST
Kansas City Chiefs
Los Angeles Chargers
NA
.7
Kansas City Chiefs
0.78
0.22
2021-01-03 16:25:00 EST
Denver Broncos
Las Vegas Raiders
2.5
.6
Denver Broncos
0.69
0.31
2021-01-03 16:25:00 EST
Carolina Panthers
New Orleans Saints
6.5
.5
New Orleans Saints
0.47
0.53
2021-01-03 16:25:00 EST
Chicago Bears
Green Bay Packers
5.5
.7
Green Bay Packers
0.23
0.77
2021-01-03 16:25:00 EST
Houston Texans
Tennessee Titans
7.5
.9
Tennessee Titans
0.07
0.93
2021-01-03 16:25:00 EST
Los Angeles Rams
Arizona Cardinals
NA
.8
Arizona Cardinals
0.19
0.81
2021-01-03 16:25:00 EST
San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks
4.5
.7
Seattle Seahawks
0.27
0.73
2021-01-03 16:25:00 EST
Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Football Team
2.0
.7
Washington Football Team
0.21
0.79
2021-01-03 20:20:00 EST
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